ETSY
Up more than its e-commerce peers
- ETSY +7.21% on the last session vs SPY −0.04%: +7.3 pts of stock-specific move.
- More than its group: its e-commerce peers +1.4% (+1.4 pts vs SPY).
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
- Activity: volume on pace for 1.5× its 20-day average.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices ETSY only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
85.15 +2.7% ↓ less often after a big gain
reached 3 in 10 days · 26% vs usual 28% reached today |
87.98 +6.1% ↓ less often after a big gain
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 26% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 88.91 · prior close 82.93 | |
| Bargain buy side |
80.77 -2.6% ↓ less often after a big gain
reached 3 in 10 days · 25% vs usual 26% |
78.17 -5.7% ↓ less often after a big gain
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 25% vs usual 27% |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 80.07 | 2 in 10 days↓ 16% vs 17% | 85.89 | 2 in 10 days↓ 16% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 80.77 | 3 in 10 days↓ 25% vs 26% | 85.15 | 3 in 10 days↓ 26% vs 28% |
| Eager | 81.41 | 4 in 10 days | 84.47 | 4 in 10 days↓ 42% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 76.68 | 2 in 10 weeks↓ 16% vs 18% | 89.69 | 2 in 10 weeks↓ 15% vs 19% |
| Balanced | 78.17 | 3 in 10 weeks↓ 25% vs 27% | 87.98 | 3 in 10 weeks↓ 26% vs 30% |
| Eager | 79.58 | 4 in 10 weeks↓ 40% vs 43% | 86.42 | 4 in 10 weeks↓ 44% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From ETSY's daily swings (about 2.7% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 26% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 8 of 10 years)
- Bargain price, next session: reached 25% of days instead of the usual 26% (held in 8 of 10 years)
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 26% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 10 of 10 years)
- Bargain price, next 5 sessions: reached 25% of weeks instead of the usual 27% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 8, 2026 | +5.1% | — | — | — |
| Aug 24, 2026 | +7.4% | -6.5% | -15.3% | — |
| Aug 4, 2026 | +3.9% | -8.0% | -5.4% | — |
| Jul 27, 2026 | +4.0% | -0.8% | +0.7% | — |
| Jul 2, 2026 | +5.7% | +5.3% | +8.1% | -5.4% |
| Jun 24, 2026 | +4.2% | -6.7% | +3.3% | -5.5% |
| Jun 15, 2026 | +3.9% | +3.7% | +15.6% | +2.5% |
| May 20, 2026 | +5.7% | +9.7% | +19.1% | +33.4% |
Big drop and big gain: among ETSY's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time closing high Nov 24, 2021 |
296.91 +233.9% |
| Now | 88.91 |
| 52-week closing high Oct 15, 2026 |
88.91 0.0% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 87.98 -1.0% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
82.93 -6.7% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 78.17 -12.1% |
| 50-day average | 77.12 -13.3% |
| 200-day average | 66.68 -25.0% |
| 52-week closing low Feb 18, 2026 |
44.05 -50.5% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 11 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.