EU
Underperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- EU −4.39% on the last session vs SPY +0.10%: −4.5 pts of stock-specific move.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices EU only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
0.90 +6.2% ↑ more often after a new 52-week low
reached 4 in 10 days · 36% vs usual 28% |
0.97 +14.3% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 31% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 0.81 · prior close 0.85 | |
| Bargain buy side |
0.80 -5.8% ↓ less often while far below its high
reached 2 in 10 days · 24% vs usual 26% |
0.74 -12.5% ↓ less often while far below its high
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 25% vs usual 27% |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 0.79 | 2 in 10 days↓ 15% vs 17% | 0.92 | 3 in 10 days↑ 25% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 0.80 | 2 in 10 days↓ 24% vs 26% | 0.90 | 4 in 10 days↑ 36% vs 28% |
| Eager | 0.82 | 4 in 10 days↓ 40% vs 41% | 0.89 | 5 in 10 days↑ 52% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 0.71 | 2 in 10 weeks↓ 16% vs 18% | 1.02 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 0.74 | 3 in 10 weeks↓ 25% vs 27% | 0.97 | 3 in 10 weeks↑ 31% vs 30% |
| Eager | 0.77 | 4 in 10 weeks↓ 41% vs 43% | 0.93 | 5 in 10 weeks↑ 49% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From EU's daily swings (about 6.2% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 31% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 8, 2026 | -6.5% | — | — | — |
| Sep 30, 2026 | -6.1% | 0.0% | — | — |
| Sep 14, 2026 | -15.5% | +12.9% | -2.2% | — |
| Aug 28, 2026 | -7.9% | -3.1% | -10.2% | — |
| Aug 13, 2026 | -17.4% | -7.9% | -18.4% | — |
| Jul 24, 2026 | -5.8% | -4.4% | +8.8% | — |
| Jul 13, 2026 | -7.6% | -3.3% | +13.1% | -20.5% |
| Jul 2, 2026 | -5.1% | +2.3% | -16.3% | -19.4% |
- Stretch price, next session: reached 36% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 9 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | -2.8% | +32.4% | 0.0% | — |
| Jul 7, 2026 | -5.3% | -0.8% | -8.7% | -15.1% |
| May 13, 2026 | -3.6% | -11.3% | -14.5% | -28.3% |
| Mar 28, 2025 | -5.8% | -11.5% | +20.6% | +118.3% |
| Feb 6, 2025 | -5.1% | -3.7% | -51.3% | -43.0% |
| Mar 7, 2023 | -5.9% | -7.2% | -0.5% | +24.2% |
| Nov 14, 2022 | -7.8% | -1.8% | +5.8% | +8.9% |
| Sep 26, 2022 | -5.0% | +14.3% | +16.1% | +3.9% |
- Bargain price, next session: reached 24% of days instead of the usual 26% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Bargain price, next 5 sessions: reached 25% of weeks instead of the usual 27% (held in 10 of 10 years)
Big drop and big gain: among EU's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time closing high Feb 4, 2011 |
9.18 +1029.6% |
| 52-week closing high Oct 15, 2025 |
4.07 +400.8% |
| 200-day average | 1.76 +116.4% |
| 50-day average | 1.13 +39.5% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 0.97 +19.6% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
0.85 +4.6% |
| Now | 0.81 |
| 52-week closing low Oct 15, 2026 |
0.81 0.0% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 0.74 -8.5% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 16 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.