EVR
Moving with the market
- EVR +0.17% on the last session vs SPY +0.01%: +0.2 pts of stock-specific move.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices EVR only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
259.08 +1.8% ↑ more often after a new 52-week low
reached 4 in 10 days · 36% vs usual 28% |
264.91 +4.1% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 31% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 254.87 · prior close 254.45 | |
| Bargain buy side |
249.91 -1.8% reached 3 in 10 days |
244.40 -4.0% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 248.45 | 2 in 10 days | 260.60 | 3 in 10 days↑ 25% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 249.91 | 3 in 10 days | 259.08 | 4 in 10 days↑ 36% vs 28% |
| Eager | 251.27 | 4 in 10 days | 257.67 | 5 in 10 days↑ 52% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 241.22 | 2 in 10 weeks | 268.40 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 244.40 | 3 in 10 weeks | 264.91 | 3 in 10 weeks↑ 31% vs 30% |
| Eager | 247.40 | 4 in 10 weeks | 261.70 | 5 in 10 weeks↑ 49% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From EVR's daily swings (about 1.9% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 31% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 13, 2026 | -3.0% | — | — | — |
| Sep 9, 2026 | -2.6% | -9.1% | -7.4% | — |
| Aug 20, 2026 | -3.8% | +1.8% | -6.0% | — |
| Aug 6, 2026 | -2.7% | +0.7% | -3.7% | — |
| Jul 29, 2026 | -10.5% | +4.6% | -4.1% | — |
| Jul 8, 2026 | -4.6% | +6.8% | -6.3% | -18.8% |
| Jun 24, 2026 | -3.7% | -3.4% | -3.8% | -26.2% |
| Jun 10, 2026 | -4.6% | +7.7% | -1.9% | -16.5% |
- Stretch price, next session: reached 36% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 9 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 16, 2026 | -3.3% | -0.7% | — | — |
| Apr 3, 2025 | -15.5% | -1.5% | +19.3% | +60.4% |
| Sep 23, 2022 | -5.6% | +0.7% | +17.8% | +32.7% |
| Jul 14, 2022 | -2.8% | +11.6% | +22.4% | +3.0% |
| Jun 10, 2022 | -6.9% | -5.4% | -11.0% | +0.4% |
| Apr 6, 2022 | -3.9% | +1.7% | +4.7% | -12.5% |
| Mar 7, 2022 | -7.0% | +0.5% | -0.5% | +2.5% |
Big drop and big gain: among EVR's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time and 52-week closing high Jan 15, 2026 |
379.99 +49.1% |
| 200-day average | 319.78 +25.5% |
| 50-day average | 279.76 +9.8% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 264.91 +3.9% |
| Now | 254.87 |
| 52-week closing low Oct 14, 2026 |
254.45 -0.2% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
254.45 -0.2% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 244.40 -4.1% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 20 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.