EVRG
Underperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- EVRG −1.21% on the last session vs SPY +0.10%: −1.3 pts of stock-specific move.
- Aftermath, big drop (-1.2% today so far, past its big-drop line of -1.2%): After its 60 big drops in the past 5 years, EVRG was higher a day later 35 times out of 60; half the outcomes fell between -0.6% and +0.9%. History, not a forecast.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices EVRG only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
83.30 +0.8% reached 3 in 10 days reached today |
84.07 +1.7% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
| Now | 81.67 · prior close 82.67 | |
| Bargain buy side |
82.05 -0.8% reached 3 in 10 days reached today |
81.29 -1.7% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 81.85 | 2 in 10 days | 83.50 | 2 in 10 days |
| Balanced | 82.05 | 3 in 10 days | 83.30 | 3 in 10 days |
| Eager | 82.24 | 4 in 10 days | 83.11 | 5 in 10 days |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 80.85 | 2 in 10 weeks | 84.54 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 81.29 | 3 in 10 weeks | 84.07 | 3 in 10 weeks |
| Eager | 81.70 | 4 in 10 weeks | 83.65 | 5 in 10 weeks |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From EVRG's daily swings (about 0.8% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
Big drop and big gain: among EVRG's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| Highest analyst target | 103.00 +26.1% |
| Mean analyst target | 91.18 +11.6% |
| All-time and 52-week closing high Jul 2, 2026 |
87.40 +7.0% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 84.07 +2.9% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
82.67 +1.2% |
| Now | 81.67 |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 81.29 -0.5% |
| 50-day average | 80.96 -0.9% |
| 200-day average | 80.44 -1.5% |
| Lowest analyst target | 80.00 -2.0% |
| 52-week closing low Jan 5, 2026 |
70.52 -13.7% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 54 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.