EWC
Outperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- EWC +1.01% on the last session vs SPY +0.12%: +0.9 pts of stock-specific move.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices EWC only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
59.78 +0.9% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 days · 31% vs usual 28% reached today |
60.43 +2.0% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 31% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 59.86 · prior close 59.26 | |
| Bargain buy side |
58.75 -0.9% reached 3 in 10 days |
58.12 -1.9% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 58.58 | 2 in 10 days | 59.95 | 2 in 10 days↑ 20% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 58.75 | 3 in 10 days | 59.78 | 3 in 10 days↑ 31% vs 28% |
| Eager | 58.90 | 4 in 10 days | 59.62 | 5 in 10 days↑ 49% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 57.75 | 2 in 10 weeks | 60.81 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 58.12 | 3 in 10 weeks | 60.43 | 3 in 10 weeks↑ 31% vs 30% |
| Eager | 58.46 | 4 in 10 weeks | 60.07 | 5 in 10 weeks↑ 49% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From EWC's daily swings (about 0.9% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 31% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 31% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 7, 2026 | -2.1% | +2.3% | — | — |
| Sep 23, 2026 | -1.8% | -2.1% | — | — |
| Sep 10, 2026 | -1.1% | +0.2% | -2.1% | — |
| Sep 1, 2026 | -1.4% | +0.6% | -3.8% | — |
| Jul 20, 2026 | -1.4% | +1.3% | +5.0% | — |
| Jun 17, 2026 | -1.6% | -1.0% | +0.7% | +3.8% |
| Jun 3, 2026 | -1.4% | -1.6% | -0.5% | +5.0% |
| May 15, 2026 | -1.3% | +1.9% | +3.4% | +8.8% |
Big drop and big gain: among EWC's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time and 52-week closing high Aug 25, 2026 |
62.64 +4.6% |
| 50-day average | 60.58 +1.2% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 60.43 +0.9% |
| Now | 59.86 |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
59.26 -1.0% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 58.12 -2.9% |
| 200-day average | 57.80 -3.4% |
| 52-week closing low Nov 4, 2025 |
49.05 -18.1% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 31 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.