EXEL
Outperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- EXEL +2.82% on the last session vs SPY −0.03%: +2.8 pts of stock-specific move.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices EXEL only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
61.92 +1.5% ↓ less often after a new 52-week high
reached 3 in 10 days · 25% vs usual 28% reached today |
63.08 +3.4% ↓ less often after a new 52-week high
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 27% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 62.71 · prior close 60.99 | |
| Bargain buy side |
60.08 -1.5% reached 3 in 10 days |
58.97 -3.3% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 59.78 | 2 in 10 days | 62.22 | 2 in 10 days↓ 15% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 60.08 | 3 in 10 days | 61.92 | 3 in 10 days↓ 25% vs 28% |
| Eager | 60.35 | 4 in 10 days | 61.64 | 4 in 10 days↓ 43% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 58.32 | 2 in 10 weeks | 63.78 | 2 in 10 weeks↓ 16% vs 19% |
| Balanced | 58.97 | 3 in 10 weeks | 63.08 | 3 in 10 weeks↓ 27% vs 30% |
| Eager | 59.57 | 4 in 10 weeks | 62.44 | 5 in 10 weeks↓ 45% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From EXEL's daily swings (about 1.6% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 25% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 10 of 10 years)
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 27% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 9 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 9, 2026 | +1.4% | — | — | — |
| Sep 2, 2026 | +2.9% | -1.9% | -0.2% | — |
| Jul 2, 2026 | +3.5% | +1.2% | -1.4% | +3.7% |
| May 28, 2026 | +2.8% | +2.0% | +5.5% | +7.4% |
| Apr 22, 2026 | +2.1% | -4.6% | +6.0% | +18.8% |
| Dec 23, 2025 | +0.9% | -6.0% | -6.4% | -9.1% |
| May 2, 2025 | +1.8% | -8.7% | +7.8% | -7.0% |
| Feb 26, 2025 | +1.7% | +3.0% | -1.8% | +13.0% |
Big drop and big gain: among EXEL's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 63.08 +0.6% |
| Now | 62.71 |
| All-time and 52-week closing high Oct 15, 2026 |
62.71 0.0% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
60.99 -2.7% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 58.97 -6.0% |
| 50-day average | 56.59 -9.8% |
| 200-day average | 49.76 -20.7% |
| 52-week closing low Oct 20, 2025 |
34.54 -44.9% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 26 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.