EXP
Outperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- EXP +3.84% on the last session vs SPY −0.03%: +3.9 pts of stock-specific move.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices EXP only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
165.58 +1.4% ↑ more often after a new 52-week low
reached 4 in 10 days · 36% vs usual 28% reached today |
168.39 +3.1% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
| Now | 169.60 · prior close 163.34 | |
| Bargain buy side |
161.13 -1.4% reached 3 in 10 days |
158.44 -3.0% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 160.42 | 2 in 10 days | 166.31 | 3 in 10 days↑ 25% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 161.13 | 3 in 10 days | 165.58 | 4 in 10 days↑ 36% vs 28% |
| Eager | 161.80 | 4 in 10 days | 164.90 | 5 in 10 days↑ 52% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 156.88 | 2 in 10 weeks | 170.06 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 158.44 | 3 in 10 weeks | 168.39 | 3 in 10 weeks |
| Eager | 159.91 | 4 in 10 weeks | 166.84 | 5 in 10 weeks |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From EXP's daily swings (about 1.4% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 36% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 9 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 30, 2026 | -1.5% | -2.1% | — | — |
| Mar 11, 2026 | -1.3% | -3.9% | +4.4% | +11.6% |
| May 28, 2025 | -6.8% | -1.2% | +0.9% | +16.0% |
| Mar 11, 2025 | -2.0% | +1.9% | +6.6% | -3.6% |
| Sep 26, 2022 | -1.2% | +6.0% | +17.5% | +28.1% |
| Jun 16, 2022 | -8.7% | -1.9% | +9.6% | +1.8% |
| May 10, 2022 | -3.5% | +7.1% | +9.6% | +10.3% |
| Apr 6, 2022 | -3.4% | +2.2% | +3.9% | -8.0% |
Big drop and big gain: among EXP's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time closing high Nov 25, 2024 |
312.34 +84.2% |
| 52-week closing high Oct 15, 2025 |
240.64 +41.9% |
| 200-day average | 204.55 +20.6% |
| 50-day average | 187.39 +10.5% |
| Now | 169.60 |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 168.39 -0.7% |
| 52-week closing low Oct 14, 2026 |
163.34 -3.7% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
163.34 -3.7% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 158.44 -6.6% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 32 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.