EXPD
Underperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- EXPD −0.68% on the last session vs SPY +0.08%: −0.8 pts of stock-specific move.
- Aftermath, 52-week high (Oct 14): After its 13 new 52-week highs in the past 5 years, EXPD was higher a month later 9 times out of 13; half the outcomes fell between -7.6% and +3.5%. History, not a forecast.
- 1 analyst action in the past 10 days (1 positive, 0 negative); latest: JP Morgan maintained Neutral, raised target $200 → $214.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices EXPD only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
198.86 +1.3% ↓ less often after a new 52-week high
reached 3 in 10 days · 25% vs usual 28% |
201.98 +2.8% ↓ less often after a new 52-week high
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 27% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 195.04 · prior close 196.38 | |
| Bargain buy side |
193.93 -1.2% reached 3 in 10 days |
190.94 -2.8% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 193.14 | 2 in 10 days | 199.68 | 2 in 10 days↓ 15% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 193.93 | 3 in 10 days | 198.86 | 3 in 10 days↓ 25% vs 28% |
| Eager | 194.67 | 4 in 10 days | 198.11 | 4 in 10 days↓ 43% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 189.20 | 2 in 10 weeks | 203.83 | 2 in 10 weeks↓ 16% vs 19% |
| Balanced | 190.94 | 3 in 10 weeks | 201.98 | 3 in 10 weeks↓ 27% vs 30% |
| Eager | 192.57 | 4 in 10 weeks | 200.26 | 5 in 10 weeks↓ 45% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From EXPD's daily swings (about 1.3% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 25% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 10 of 10 years)
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 27% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 9 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 14, 2026 | +0.5% | -0.8% | +0.8% | — |
| Aug 12, 2026 | +4.1% | +1.1% | +4.4% | — |
| Jul 13, 2026 | +2.0% | +1.1% | +1.0% | +10.1% |
| Jun 9, 2026 | +1.8% | -1.4% | +3.4% | +13.2% |
| Jan 8, 2026 | +0.8% | +3.5% | +3.5% | -9.5% |
| Dec 5, 2025 | +0.6% | +0.2% | +3.6% | -6.7% |
| Nov 4, 2025 | +10.8% | +2.8% | +11.5% | +21.3% |
| Sep 30, 2024 | +1.9% | -8.8% | -9.0% | -15.2% |
Big drop and big gain: among EXPD's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| Highest analyst target | 220.00 +12.8% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 201.98 +3.6% |
| All-time and 52-week closing high Oct 14, 2026 |
196.38 +0.7% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
196.38 +0.7% |
| Now | 195.04 |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 190.94 -2.1% |
| 50-day average | 188.62 -3.3% |
| Mean analyst target | 180.87 -7.3% |
| 200-day average | 164.22 -15.8% |
| 52-week closing low Oct 15, 2025 |
116.14 -40.5% |
| Lowest analyst target | 100.00 -48.7% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 42 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.