EXPE
Up more than its travel & car rental peers
- EXPE +5.96% on the last session vs SPY +0.01%: +5.9 pts of stock-specific move.
- More than its group: its travel & car rental peers +2.6% (+2.6 pts vs SPY).
- Aftermath, big gain (+6.0% today so far, past its big-gain line of +3.1%): After its 56 big gains in the past 5 years, EXPE was higher a week later 37 times out of 56; half the outcomes fell between -1.6% and +4.8%. History, not a forecast.
- 2 analyst actions in the past 10 days (0 positive, 1 negative); latest: Wells Fargo maintained Equal-Weight, lowered target $307 → $275.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices EXPE only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
281.19 +2.4% reached 3 in 10 days reached today |
289.44 +5.4% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
| Now | 291.05 · prior close 274.69 | |
| Bargain buy side |
268.34 -2.3% reached 3 in 10 days |
260.69 -5.1% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 266.31 | 2 in 10 days | 283.34 | 2 in 10 days |
| Balanced | 268.34 | 3 in 10 days | 281.19 | 3 in 10 days |
| Eager | 270.25 | 4 in 10 days | 279.21 | 5 in 10 days |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 256.30 | 2 in 10 weeks | 294.40 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 260.69 | 3 in 10 weeks | 289.44 | 3 in 10 weeks |
| Eager | 264.85 | 4 in 10 weeks | 284.89 | 5 in 10 weeks |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From EXPE's daily swings (about 2.4% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
Big drop and big gain: among EXPE's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| Highest analyst target | 430.00 +47.7% |
| All-time and 52-week closing high Aug 24, 2026 |
338.64 +16.4% |
| Mean analyst target | 336.14 +15.5% |
| 50-day average | 293.39 +0.8% |
| Now | 291.05 |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 289.44 -0.6% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
274.69 -5.6% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 260.69 -10.4% |
| 200-day average | 258.64 -11.1% |
| Lowest analyst target | 235.00 -19.3% |
| 52-week closing low Feb 23, 2026 |
187.43 -35.6% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 21 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.