EXR
Outperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- EXR +2.71% on the last session vs SPY +0.13%: +2.6 pts of stock-specific move.
- Aftermath, big gain (+2.7% today so far, past its big-gain line of +1.9%): After its 67 big gains in the past 5 years, EXR was higher a day later 27 times out of 67; half the outcomes fell between -1.2% and +0.9%. History, not a forecast.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices EXR only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
135.45 +1.0% reached 3 in 10 days reached today |
137.17 +2.3% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
| Now | 137.71 · prior close 134.08 | |
| Bargain buy side |
132.72 -1.0% reached 3 in 10 days |
131.06 -2.3% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 132.28 | 2 in 10 days | 135.90 | 2 in 10 days |
| Balanced | 132.72 | 3 in 10 days | 135.45 | 3 in 10 days |
| Eager | 133.13 | 4 in 10 days | 135.04 | 5 in 10 days |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 130.09 | 2 in 10 weeks | 138.19 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 131.06 | 3 in 10 weeks | 137.17 | 3 in 10 weeks |
| Eager | 131.97 | 4 in 10 weeks | 136.23 | 5 in 10 weeks |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From EXR's daily swings (about 1.1% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
Big drop and big gain: among EXR's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time closing high Dec 31, 2021 |
185.87 +35.0% |
| Highest analyst target | 178.00 +29.3% |
| Mean analyst target | 158.25 +14.9% |
| 52-week closing high Jul 29, 2026 |
151.07 +9.7% |
| Lowest analyst target | 140.00 +1.7% |
| 200-day average | 139.17 +1.1% |
| 50-day average | 138.56 +0.6% |
| Now | 137.71 |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 137.17 -0.4% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
134.08 -2.6% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 131.06 -4.8% |
| 52-week closing low Dec 9, 2025 |
120.98 -12.2% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 22 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.