FAF
Outperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- FAF +2.86% on the last session vs SPY +0.01%: +2.9 pts of stock-specific move.
- Earnings Wed after the close: EPS $1.89 expected (2 analysts).
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices FAF only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
63.26 +1.9% reached 3 in 10 days reached today |
64.77 +4.3% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
| Now | 63.85 · prior close 62.07 | |
| Bargain buy side |
60.90 -1.9% reached 3 in 10 days |
59.48 -4.2% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 60.53 | 2 in 10 days | 63.65 | 2 in 10 days |
| Balanced | 60.90 | 3 in 10 days | 63.26 | 3 in 10 days |
| Eager | 61.25 | 4 in 10 days | 62.90 | 5 in 10 days |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 58.67 | 2 in 10 weeks | 65.67 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 59.48 | 3 in 10 weeks | 64.77 | 3 in 10 weeks |
| Eager | 60.26 | 4 in 10 weeks | 63.94 | 5 in 10 weeks |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From FAF's daily swings (about 2.0% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
Big drop and big gain: among FAF's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time and 52-week closing high Jul 28, 2026 |
78.43 +22.8% |
| 50-day average | 68.91 +7.9% |
| 200-day average | 66.23 +3.7% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 64.77 +1.4% |
| Now | 63.85 |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
62.07 -2.8% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 59.48 -6.8% |
| 52-week closing low Mar 20, 2026 |
55.86 -12.5% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 16 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.