FANG
Moving with its group (XOP -1.7%)
- FANG −1.06% on the last session vs SPY +0.06%: −1.1 pts of stock-specific move.
- The oil & gas producers ETF (XOP) -1.7% (-1.8 pts vs SPY): the stock moved with its group.
- Aftermath, big gain (Oct 8): After its 53 big gains in the past 5 years, FANG was higher a week later 34 times out of 53; half the outcomes fell between -1.8% and +4.2%. History, not a forecast.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices FANG only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
201.17 +1.9% reached 3 in 10 days |
205.79 +4.2% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
| Now | 195.42 · prior close 197.51 | |
| Bargain buy side |
193.92 -1.8% reached 3 in 10 days |
189.57 -4.0% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 192.76 | 2 in 10 days | 202.37 | 2 in 10 days |
| Balanced | 193.92 | 3 in 10 days | 201.17 | 3 in 10 days |
| Eager | 195.00 | 4 in 10 days | 200.05 | 5 in 10 days |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 187.06 | 2 in 10 weeks | 208.55 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 189.57 | 3 in 10 weeks | 205.79 | 3 in 10 weeks |
| Eager | 191.94 | 4 in 10 weeks | 203.24 | 5 in 10 weeks |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From FANG's daily swings (about 1.9% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
Big drop and big gain: among FANG's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| Highest analyst target | 287.00 +46.9% |
| Mean analyst target | 234.79 +20.1% |
| All-time and 52-week closing high Sep 15, 2026 |
211.53 +8.2% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 205.79 +5.3% |
| Lowest analyst target | 205.00 +4.9% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
197.51 +1.1% |
| 50-day average | 196.61 +0.6% |
| Now | 195.42 |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 189.57 -3.0% |
| 200-day average | 185.13 -5.3% |
| 52-week closing low Nov 5, 2025 |
134.06 -31.4% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 14 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.