FAST
Underperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- FAST −3.30% on the last session vs SPY +0.10%: −3.4 pts of stock-specific move.
- Reported 3Q2026 Oct 14 during market hours: EPS $0.35 vs $0.34 expected (beat, +$0.01, +3.9%); revenue $2.5B (+0.9% beat). The stock moved +1.1% on Wed's session (+2.2 pts vs SPY).
- Aftermath, big drop (-3.3% today so far, past its big-drop line of -1.7%): After its 69 big drops in the past 5 years, FAST was higher a month later 45 times out of 69; half the outcomes fell between -1.3% and +6.7%. History, not a forecast.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
- Activity: volume on pace for 1.6× its 20-day average.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices FAST only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
52.56 +1.1% reached 3 in 10 days reached today |
53.27 +2.4% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
| Now | 50.28 · prior close 52.00 | |
| Bargain buy side |
51.44 -1.1% reached 3 in 10 days reached today |
50.76 -2.4% ↑ more often while near its 52-week high
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 29% vs usual 27% |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 51.26 | 2 in 10 days | 52.75 | 2 in 10 days |
| Balanced | 51.44 | 3 in 10 days | 52.56 | 3 in 10 days |
| Eager | 51.61 | 4 in 10 days | 52.39 | 5 in 10 days |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 50.37 | 2 in 10 weeks↑ 20% vs 18% | 53.69 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 50.76 | 3 in 10 weeks↑ 29% vs 27% | 53.27 | 3 in 10 weeks |
| Eager | 51.13 | 4 in 10 weeks↑ 44% vs 43% | 52.88 | 5 in 10 weeks |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From FAST's daily swings (about 1.1% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Bargain price, next 5 sessions: reached 29% of weeks instead of the usual 27% (held in 8 of 10 years)
Big drop and big gain: among FAST's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| Highest analyst target | 59.00 +17.3% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 53.27 +5.9% |
| All-time and 52-week closing high Aug 11, 2026 |
52.38 +4.2% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
52.00 +3.4% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 50.76 +0.9% |
| 50-day average | 50.39 +0.2% |
| Now | 50.28 |
| Mean analyst target | 48.84 -2.9% |
| 200-day average | 46.34 -7.8% |
| Lowest analyst target | 39.90 -20.7% |
| 52-week closing low Nov 20, 2025 |
38.52 -23.4% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 39 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.