FCN
Outperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- FCN +4.84% on the last session vs SPY +0.01%: +4.8 pts of stock-specific move.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices FCN only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
142.93 +2.0% reached 3 in 10 days reached today |
146.51 +4.6% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
| Now | 146.87 · prior close 140.09 | |
| Bargain buy side |
137.31 -2.0% reached 3 in 10 days |
133.95 -4.4% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 136.42 | 2 in 10 days | 143.86 | 2 in 10 days |
| Balanced | 137.31 | 3 in 10 days | 142.93 | 3 in 10 days |
| Eager | 138.15 | 4 in 10 days | 142.06 | 5 in 10 days |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 132.01 | 2 in 10 weeks | 148.66 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 133.95 | 3 in 10 weeks | 146.51 | 3 in 10 weeks |
| Eager | 135.78 | 4 in 10 weeks | 144.54 | 5 in 10 weeks |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From FCN's daily swings (about 2.1% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
Big drop and big gain: among FCN's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time closing high Dec 4, 2023 |
231.00 +57.3% |
| 52-week closing high Apr 21, 2026 |
187.03 +27.3% |
| 200-day average | 160.74 +9.4% |
| Now | 146.87 |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 146.51 -0.2% |
| 50-day average | 145.58 -0.9% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
140.09 -4.6% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 133.95 -8.8% |
| 52-week closing low Sep 24, 2026 |
130.45 -11.2% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 30 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.