FCNCA
Outperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- FCNCA +1.09% on the last session vs SPY −0.00%: +1.1 pts of stock-specific move.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices FCNCA only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
2,077.18 +1.1% reached 3 in 10 days reached today |
2,104.50 +2.4% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
| Now | 2,077.65 · prior close 2,055.34 | |
| Bargain buy side |
2,033.73 -1.1% reached 3 in 10 days |
2,007.33 -2.3% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 2,026.76 | 2 in 10 days | 2,084.33 | 2 in 10 days |
| Balanced | 2,033.73 | 3 in 10 days | 2,077.18 | 3 in 10 days |
| Eager | 2,040.25 | 4 in 10 days | 2,070.54 | 5 in 10 days |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 1,991.98 | 2 in 10 weeks | 2,120.72 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 2,007.33 | 3 in 10 weeks | 2,104.50 | 3 in 10 weeks |
| Eager | 2,021.74 | 4 in 10 weeks | 2,089.49 | 5 in 10 weeks |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From FCNCA's daily swings (about 1.1% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
Big drop and big gain: among FCNCA's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time closing high Nov 22, 2024 |
2,334.33 +12.4% |
| 52-week closing high Aug 14, 2026 |
2,289.14 +10.2% |
| 50-day average | 2,143.62 +3.2% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 2,104.50 +1.3% |
| Now | 2,077.65 |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
2,055.34 -1.1% |
| 200-day average | 2,054.67 -1.1% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 2,007.33 -3.4% |
| 52-week closing low Oct 16, 2025 |
1,631.87 -21.5% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 40 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.