FCX
Moving with the market
- FCX −0.23% on the last session vs SPY +0.10%: −0.3 pts of stock-specific move.
- Aftermath, big drop (Oct 14): After its 53 big drops in the past 5 years, FCX was higher a month later 34 times out of 53; half the outcomes fell between -3.2% and +11.4%. History, not a forecast.
- 6 analyst actions in the past 10 days (6 positive, 0 negative); latest: UBS maintained Buy, raised target $77.00 → $78.00.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices FCX only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
71.23 +2.3% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 days · 31% vs usual 28% |
73.28 +5.3% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 31% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 69.46 · prior close 69.62 | |
| Bargain buy side |
68.04 -2.3% reached 3 in 10 days reached today |
66.15 -5.0% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 67.54 | 2 in 10 days | 71.76 | 2 in 10 days↑ 20% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 68.04 | 3 in 10 days | 71.23 | 3 in 10 days↑ 31% vs 28% |
| Eager | 68.52 | 4 in 10 days | 70.74 | 5 in 10 days↑ 49% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 65.06 | 2 in 10 weeks | 74.50 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 66.15 | 3 in 10 weeks | 73.28 | 3 in 10 weeks↑ 31% vs 30% |
| Eager | 67.18 | 4 in 10 weeks | 72.15 | 5 in 10 weeks↑ 49% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From FCX's daily swings (about 2.4% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 31% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 31% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 10, 2026 | -6.6% | -0.5% | +3.5% | — |
| Sep 1, 2026 | -4.3% | +5.2% | -4.4% | — |
| Aug 13, 2026 | -3.5% | +6.6% | +3.8% | — |
| Jul 16, 2026 | -4.0% | +8.4% | +13.5% | +18.9% |
| Jul 1, 2026 | -3.8% | 0.0% | +3.7% | +15.9% |
| Jun 23, 2026 | -6.9% | -2.3% | -1.2% | +15.7% |
| Jun 5, 2026 | -9.1% | +8.0% | -9.3% | +15.0% |
| May 15, 2026 | -4.7% | -1.6% | +11.3% | +8.8% |
Big drop and big gain: among FCX's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| Highest analyst target | 92.00 +32.5% |
| All-time and 52-week closing high Aug 25, 2026 |
79.91 +15.0% |
| Mean analyst target | 77.91 +12.2% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 73.28 +5.5% |
| 50-day average | 72.00 +3.7% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
69.62 +0.2% |
| Now | 69.46 |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 66.15 -4.8% |
| 200-day average | 64.43 -7.2% |
| 52-week closing low Nov 6, 2025 |
38.38 -44.8% |
| Lowest analyst target | 32.00 -53.9% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 31 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.