FDS
Underperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- FDS −4.18% on the last session vs SPY +0.74%: −4.9 pts of stock-specific move.
- Reported 4Q2026 Sep 30 before the open: EPS $4.52 vs $4.35 expected (beat, +$0.17, +4.0%); revenue $634.7M. The stock moved +3.8% on Wed's session (+4.0 pts vs SPY).
- Aftermath, big drop (Oct 2): After its 67 big drops in the past 5 years, FDS typically gained 1.3% over the next month (median) and was higher 60% of the time; half the outcomes fell between -2.6% and +7.8%. An ordinary month: +0.2%. Among S&P 500 stocks after big drops, that ranks #295 of 500.
- Market backdrop (Fri): Average Hourly Earnings m/m 0.1% vs 0.3% expected (cooler); Non-Farm Employment Change 29K vs 89K expected (weaker); S&P futures +0.41%, 10-year yield -5bp in the 30 minutes after.
After each kind of event
| Event | Events | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Any day | 1,255 | +0.1%#114 H | +0.2%#320 H | +0.2%#405 H | -0.7%#431 M |
| Big drop latest session (-2.6% or worse) | 70 | 0.0%#414 H | 0.0%#380 H | +1.3%#295 H | +0.6%#415 M |
| Big gain Sep 30 (+2.2% or better) | 65 | +0.3%#72 H | +0.7%#121 H | -0.8%#494 H | +0.3%#402 M |
| Earnings beat Sep 30 | 15 | +0.5%#92 M | +0.1%#271 M | +3.1%#70 M | -0.2%#446 M |
| Earnings miss | 5 | +0.1%#135 L | +2.3%#42 L | +0.8%#143 L | +2.7%#126 L |
| 52-week high | 4 | -0.5%#237 L | -1.9%#317 L | -1.7%#336 L | -9.4%#446 L |
| 52-week low | 4 | +1.0%#126 L | -4.7%#176 L | -7.2%#214 L | -14.8%#209 L |
| Crossed above 200-day avg | 13 | +0.4%#24 M | -1.8%#464 M | +0.1%#337 M | +1.3%#412 M |
| Crossed below 200-day avg | 13 | -0.5%#417 M | -2.1%#491 M | +1.6%#156 M | +0.9%#408 M |
| RSI oversold | 14 | +0.3%#126 M | +0.8%#223 M | +0.7%#402 M | -1.0%#457 M |
| RSI overbought | 9 | -0.2%#294 M | -1.5%#403 M | -0.2%#285 M | -1.3%#425 M |
| Reddit spike | — | — | — | — | — |
| Analyst upgrade | — | — | — | — | — |
| Analyst downgrade | — | — | — | — | — |
| Insider buy | — | — | — | — | — |
| Insider unplanned sale | — | — | — | — | — |
Median gain from the close of the session the event was known, over each holding period; #rank among the S&P 500 stocks after the same kind of event (#1 = best). "Big" is FDS's own: its worst / best 10% of days over the prior 2 years. Highlighted: happening in the latest session.
Crossed above 200-day avg
The close moves above its 200-day moving average.
| Holding | Events | Median (likely range) | Confidence | Rank | Up | vs SPY | Range of outcomes (worst · 25–75% · median · best) | vs S&P 500 stocks (their medians) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | 13 | +0.35% (+0.2 to +0.8) | Medium | #24 of 497 | 69% | +0.01% |
-6%
+2%
|
|
| 1 week | 13 | -1.80% (-2.3 to +0.9) | Medium | #464 of 497 | 38% | -1.18% |
-9%
+4%
|
|
| 1 month | 13 | +0.11% (-5.5 to +3.4) | Medium | #337 of 497 | 54% | -2.52% |
-9%
+9%
|
|
| 1 quarter | 13 ≈9 indep. | +1.29% (-1.5 to +3.9) | Medium | #412 of 494 | 54% | -4.13% |
-17%
+16%
|
Range of outcomes: all of FDS's crosses above the 200-day average in the past 5 years, from the worst to the best result over each holding period; the box holds the middle half, the tick is the median. A wide box means the median alone says little. Hover the median for the average.
Crossed above 200-day avg by trend
| When it happened | Events | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Medium trendAbove its 50-day avg | 8 | +0.3%M vs +0.1% | -1.8%M vs -0.2% | -2.5%M vs -0.8% | +2.7%L vs -1.3% |
| Below its 50-day avg now | 5 | +0.4%L vs +0.1% | -1.8%L vs +0.3% | +0.1%L vs +0.8% | -1.5%L vs -0.1% |
| Short trendAbove its 20-day avg | 11 | +0.3%M vs +0.1% | -1.2%M vs -0.1% | +0.5%M vs -0.6% | +1.5%M vs -1.8% |
| Below its 20-day avg now | 2 | +1.0%– vs +0.1% | -1.9%– vs +0.4% | -0.8%– vs +1.2% | -4.4%– vs +0.6% |
The same event split by where FDS stood against its 200-, 50- and 20-day averages when it happened (a dip in an uptrend vs a falling knife); "vs" is the plain any-day median in that trend; "now" marks where it stands today. Splitting halves the evidence, so watch the confidence letters: H / M / L.
Latest crosses above the 200-day average
| Event | Entry | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 2, 2026 | Jul 2 @ $249.15 | +1.9% on the day | +0.8% | -1.2% | +7.8% | +11.4% |
| Jun 1, 2026 | Jun 1 @ $269.83 | +10.3% on the day | -5.5% | -9.0% | -9.3% | +16.2% |
| May 9, 2025 | May 9 @ $444.26 | +1.4% on the day | +0.4% | +4.1% | -6.2% | -16.8% |
| Mar 27, 2025 | Mar 27 @ $439.00 | +1.8% on the day | -0.1% | -2.7% | -5.9% | -1.5% |
| Sep 10, 2024 | Sep 10 @ $428.79 | +2.8% on the day | -0.7% | +1.7% | +3.4% | +8.6% |
| May 17, 2024 | May 17 @ $434.52 | +0.8% on the day | +0.8% | -2.9% | -9.1% | -7.7% |
| Jun 15, 2023 | Jun 15 @ $406.14 | +2.8% on the day | -0.3% | -6.7% | +0.5% | +1.5% |
| Apr 21, 2023 | Apr 21 @ $404.31 | +1.1% on the day | +0.2% | -2.3% | -5.5% | +3.9% |
| Mar 2, 2023 | Mar 2 @ $397.75 | +0.5% on the day | +1.6% | -2.1% | +0.1% | -5.6% |
| Jan 11, 2023 | Jan 11 @ $395.16 | +0.9% on the day | +0.3% | +2.1% | +3.8% | +1.3% |
| Nov 7, 2022 | Nov 7 @ $395.71 | +1.4% on the day | +2.1% | +2.5% | +8.9% | +4.5% |
| Oct 4, 2022 | Oct 4 @ $403.45 | +3.5% on the day | +0.4% | -1.8% | -1.7% | -3.2% |
| Jul 28, 2022 | Jul 28 @ $401.53 | +3.0% on the day | +2.0% | +0.9% | +5.7% | -0.6% |
Aftermath: entry is the close of the first session the event was fully known (the same session for price moves, the reaction session for earnings, the next session for Reddit, analyst and insider events, which are dated by day). Repeats within a few sessions count as one event. Past performance after an event says nothing certain about the next one. Not advice.