FDS
Outperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- FDS +3.64% on the last session vs SPY +0.10%: +3.5 pts of stock-specific move.
- Aftermath, big gain (+3.6% today so far, past its big-gain line of +2.3%): After its 65 big gains in the past 5 years, FDS was higher a day later 36 times out of 65; half the outcomes fell between -0.8% and +1.0%. History, not a forecast.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices FDS only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
297.28 +2.6% reached 3 in 10 days reached today |
306.86 +5.9% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
| Now | 300.30 · prior close 289.74 | |
| Bargain buy side |
282.40 -2.5% reached 3 in 10 days |
273.57 -5.6% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 280.05 | 2 in 10 days | 299.76 | 2 in 10 days |
| Balanced | 282.40 | 3 in 10 days | 297.28 | 3 in 10 days |
| Eager | 284.60 | 4 in 10 days | 294.97 | 5 in 10 days |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 268.52 | 2 in 10 weeks | 312.64 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 273.57 | 3 in 10 weeks | 306.86 | 3 in 10 weeks |
| Eager | 278.37 | 4 in 10 weeks | 301.57 | 5 in 10 weeks |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From FDS's daily swings (about 2.7% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
Big drop and big gain: among FDS's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time closing high Nov 14, 2024 |
482.29 +60.6% |
| Highest analyst target | 340.00 +13.2% |
| 52-week closing high Aug 31, 2026 |
313.55 +4.4% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 306.86 +2.2% |
| Now | 300.30 |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
289.74 -3.5% |
| 50-day average | 284.83 -5.2% |
| Mean analyst target | 279.12 -7.1% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 273.57 -8.9% |
| 200-day average | 247.28 -17.7% |
| Lowest analyst target | 212.00 -29.4% |
| 52-week closing low Feb 17, 2026 |
187.46 -37.6% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 30 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.