FDXF
Outperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- FDXF +1.30% on the last session vs SPY +0.01%: +1.3 pts of stock-specific move.
- 3 analyst actions in the past 10 days (0 positive, 3 negative); latest: Stifel maintained Hold, lowered target $160 → $129.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices FDXF only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
110.96 +2.1% reached 3 in 10 days reached today |
113.83 +4.7% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
| Now | 110.10 · prior close 108.69 | |
| Bargain buy side |
106.47 -2.0% reached 3 in 10 days |
103.78 -4.5% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 105.75 | 2 in 10 days | 111.71 | 2 in 10 days |
| Balanced | 106.47 | 3 in 10 days | 110.96 | 3 in 10 days |
| Eager | 107.14 | 4 in 10 days | 110.27 | 5 in 10 days |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 102.24 | 2 in 10 weeks | 115.55 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 103.78 | 3 in 10 weeks | 113.83 | 3 in 10 weeks |
| Eager | 105.24 | 4 in 10 weeks | 112.25 | 5 in 10 weeks |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From FDXF's daily swings (about 2.1% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
Big drop and big gain: among FDXF's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| Highest analyst target | 200.00 +81.7% |
| All-time and 52-week closing high Jun 9, 2026 |
188.46 +71.2% |
| Mean analyst target | 147.57 +34.0% |
| 50-day average | 125.80 +14.3% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 113.83 +3.4% |
| Now | 110.10 |
| 52-week closing low Oct 14, 2026 |
108.69 -1.3% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
108.69 -1.3% |
| Lowest analyst target | 108.00 -1.9% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 103.78 -5.7% |
Closing prices. Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.