FELE
Outperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- FELE +0.92% on the last session vs SPY −0.00%: +0.9 pts of stock-specific move.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices FELE only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
100.85 +1.0% reached 3 in 10 days reached today |
102.09 +2.2% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
| Now | 100.78 · prior close 99.86 | |
| Bargain buy side |
98.88 -1.0% reached 3 in 10 days |
97.68 -2.2% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 98.56 | 2 in 10 days | 101.17 | 2 in 10 days |
| Balanced | 98.88 | 3 in 10 days | 100.85 | 3 in 10 days |
| Eager | 99.18 | 4 in 10 days | 100.55 | 5 in 10 days |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 96.99 | 2 in 10 weeks | 102.82 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 97.68 | 3 in 10 weeks | 102.09 | 3 in 10 weeks |
| Eager | 98.34 | 4 in 10 weeks | 101.41 | 5 in 10 weeks |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From FELE's daily swings (about 1.0% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
Big drop and big gain: among FELE's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time and 52-week closing high Aug 5, 2026 |
109.77 +8.9% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 102.09 +1.3% |
| Now | 100.78 |
| 50-day average | 100.07 -0.7% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
99.86 -0.9% |
| 200-day average | 99.84 -0.9% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 97.68 -3.1% |
| 52-week closing low Mar 20, 2026 |
89.41 -11.3% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 47 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.