FERG
Outperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- FERG +2.55% on the last session vs SPY +0.06%: +2.5 pts of stock-specific move.
- Aftermath, big gain (+2.6% today so far, past its big-gain line of +2.0%): After its 56 big gains in the past 5 years, FERG was higher a week later 35 times out of 56; half the outcomes fell between -0.6% and +3.6%. History, not a forecast.
- 1 analyst action in the past 10 days (0 positive, 1 negative); latest: RBC Capital maintained Outperform, lowered target $290 → $286.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices FERG only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
226.15 +1.4% reached 3 in 10 days reached today |
230.19 +3.3% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
| Now | 228.62 · prior close 222.94 | |
| Bargain buy side |
219.77 -1.4% reached 3 in 10 days |
215.92 -3.1% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 218.75 | 2 in 10 days | 227.21 | 2 in 10 days |
| Balanced | 219.77 | 3 in 10 days | 226.15 | 3 in 10 days |
| Eager | 220.73 | 4 in 10 days | 225.17 | 5 in 10 days |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 213.69 | 2 in 10 weeks | 232.59 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 215.92 | 3 in 10 weeks | 230.19 | 3 in 10 weeks |
| Eager | 218.02 | 4 in 10 weeks | 227.97 | 5 in 10 weeks |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From FERG's daily swings (about 1.5% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
Big drop and big gain: among FERG's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| Highest analyst target | 325.00 +42.2% |
| Mean analyst target | 284.50 +24.4% |
| All-time and 52-week closing high Apr 30, 2026 |
265.69 +16.2% |
| 200-day average | 236.15 +3.3% |
| Lowest analyst target | 235.00 +2.8% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 230.19 +0.7% |
| 50-day average | 228.74 +0.1% |
| Now | 228.62 |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
222.94 -2.5% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 215.92 -5.6% |
| 52-week closing low Sep 17, 2026 |
214.26 -6.3% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 17 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.