FFIV
Underperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- FFIV −1.32% on the last session vs SPY +0.10%: −1.4 pts of stock-specific move.
- Aftermath, big drop (Oct 14): After its 61 big drops in the past 5 years, FFIV was higher a month later 41 times out of 61; half the outcomes fell between -1.6% and +9.0%. History, not a forecast.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices FFIV only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
467.21 +2.2% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 days · 31% vs usual 28% |
479.82 +4.9% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 31% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 451.24 · prior close 457.26 | |
| Bargain buy side |
447.52 -2.1% reached 3 in 10 days reached today |
435.76 -4.7% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 444.40 | 2 in 10 days | 470.49 | 2 in 10 days↑ 20% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 447.52 | 3 in 10 days | 467.21 | 3 in 10 days↑ 31% vs 28% |
| Eager | 450.45 | 4 in 10 days | 464.18 | 5 in 10 days↑ 49% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 429.00 | 2 in 10 weeks | 487.38 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 435.76 | 3 in 10 weeks | 479.82 | 3 in 10 weeks↑ 31% vs 30% |
| Eager | 442.16 | 4 in 10 weeks | 472.87 | 5 in 10 weeks↑ 49% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From FFIV's daily swings (about 2.2% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 31% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 31% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 24, 2026 | -2.1% | -0.6% | — | — |
| Aug 28, 2026 | -3.9% | -1.0% | +11.1% | — |
| Aug 19, 2026 | -2.8% | +4.4% | +12.9% | — |
| Aug 7, 2026 | -3.1% | +0.7% | -2.7% | — |
| Jul 22, 2026 | -2.0% | -3.4% | -5.7% | — |
| Jul 13, 2026 | -2.2% | -2.1% | -1.7% | +14.0% |
| Jul 2, 2026 | -3.8% | +5.5% | -0.4% | +8.7% |
| Jun 16, 2026 | -2.0% | -1.0% | +5.2% | +8.9% |
Big drop and big gain: among FFIV's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| Highest analyst target | 515.00 +14.1% |
| All-time and 52-week closing high Oct 9, 2026 |
479.83 +6.3% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 479.82 +6.3% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
457.26 +1.3% |
| Now | 451.24 |
| Mean analyst target | 436.10 -3.4% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 435.76 -3.4% |
| 50-day average | 423.07 -6.2% |
| 200-day average | 354.37 -21.5% |
| Lowest analyst target | 300.00 -33.5% |
| 52-week closing low Nov 19, 2025 |
223.99 -50.4% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 27 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.