FIBK
Outperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- FIBK +0.84% on the last session vs SPY +0.06%: +0.8 pts of stock-specific move.
- Earnings Oct 22 after the close: EPS $0.70 expected (4 analysts).
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices FIBK only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
34.72 +1.0% reached 3 in 10 days reached today |
35.17 +2.3% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
| Now | 34.66 · prior close 34.37 | |
| Bargain buy side |
34.02 -1.0% reached 3 in 10 days |
33.59 -2.3% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 33.91 | 2 in 10 days | 34.84 | 2 in 10 days |
| Balanced | 34.02 | 3 in 10 days | 34.72 | 3 in 10 days |
| Eager | 34.13 | 4 in 10 days | 34.62 | 5 in 10 days |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 33.34 | 2 in 10 weeks | 35.43 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 33.59 | 3 in 10 weeks | 35.17 | 3 in 10 weeks |
| Eager | 33.83 | 4 in 10 weeks | 34.92 | 5 in 10 weeks |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From FIBK's daily swings (about 1.1% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
Big drop and big gain: among FIBK's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time and 52-week closing high Jul 16, 2026 |
39.73 +14.6% |
| 50-day average | 36.79 +6.1% |
| 200-day average | 35.67 +2.9% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 35.17 +1.5% |
| Now | 34.66 |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
34.37 -0.8% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 33.59 -3.1% |
| 52-week closing low Oct 16, 2025 |
27.83 -19.7% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 17 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.