FIGS
Outperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- FIGS +2.63% on the last session vs SPY +0.12%: +2.5 pts of stock-specific move.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices FIGS only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
19.48 +4.5% ↓ less often after a new 52-week high
reached 3 in 10 days · 25% vs usual 28% |
20.58 +10.5% ↓ less often after a new 52-week high
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 27% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 19.12 · prior close 18.63 | |
| Bargain buy side |
17.82 -4.3% reached 3 in 10 days |
16.87 -9.5% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 17.56 | 2 in 10 days | 19.76 | 2 in 10 days↓ 15% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 17.82 | 3 in 10 days | 19.48 | 3 in 10 days↓ 25% vs 28% |
| Eager | 18.06 | 4 in 10 days | 19.22 | 4 in 10 days↓ 43% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 16.33 | 2 in 10 weeks | 21.25 | 2 in 10 weeks↓ 16% vs 19% |
| Balanced | 16.87 | 3 in 10 weeks | 20.58 | 3 in 10 weeks↓ 27% vs 30% |
| Eager | 17.38 | 4 in 10 weeks | 19.97 | 5 in 10 weeks↓ 45% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From FIGS's daily swings (about 4.6% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 25% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 10 of 10 years)
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 27% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 9 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 12, 2026 | +12.4% | — | — | — |
| Feb 26, 2026 | +13.8% | +36.1% | +17.9% | -1.7% |
| Jan 13, 2026 | +1.5% | -5.9% | -17.1% | +25.1% |
| Dec 1, 2025 | +10.1% | +6.0% | +5.4% | +57.4% |
| Oct 15, 2025 | +6.2% | +4.8% | +22.6% | +60.8% |
| Sep 15, 2025 | +3.7% | -6.4% | -1.6% | +63.1% |
| Aug 13, 2025 | +5.0% | +2.6% | +1.7% | +38.5% |
Big drop and big gain: among FIGS's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time closing high Jun 30, 2021 |
50.10 +162.0% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 20.58 +7.6% |
| Now | 19.12 |
| 52-week closing high Oct 15, 2026 |
19.12 0.0% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
18.63 -2.6% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 16.87 -11.8% |
| 50-day average | 14.39 -24.7% |
| 200-day average | 12.97 -32.2% |
| 52-week closing low Oct 14, 2025 |
7.22 -62.2% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 5 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.