FIS
Outperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- FIS +2.35% on the last session vs SPY +0.09%: +2.3 pts of stock-specific move.
- Aftermath, big gain (+2.4% today so far, past its big-gain line of +1.9%): After its 59 big gains in the past 5 years, FIS was higher a week later 33 times out of 59; half the outcomes fell between -3.3% and +2.5%. History, not a forecast.
- 2 analyst actions in the past 10 days (0 positive, 2 negative); latest: Barclays maintained Equal-Weight, lowered target $43.00 → $38.00.
- 1 insider or congressional trade in the past 30 days.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices FIS only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
36.13 +1.9% reached 3 in 10 days reached today |
36.96 +4.2% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
| Now | 36.31 · prior close 35.47 | |
| Bargain buy side |
34.82 -1.8% ↓ less often while far below its high
reached 2 in 10 days · 24% vs usual 26% |
34.04 -4.0% ↓ less often while far below its high
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 25% vs usual 27% |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 34.61 | 2 in 10 days↓ 15% vs 17% | 36.35 | 2 in 10 days |
| Balanced | 34.82 | 2 in 10 days↓ 24% vs 26% | 36.13 | 3 in 10 days |
| Eager | 35.02 | 4 in 10 days↓ 40% vs 41% | 35.93 | 5 in 10 days |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 33.58 | 2 in 10 weeks↓ 16% vs 18% | 37.46 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 34.04 | 3 in 10 weeks↓ 25% vs 27% | 36.96 | 3 in 10 weeks |
| Eager | 34.46 | 4 in 10 weeks↓ 41% vs 43% | 36.51 | 5 in 10 weeks |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From FIS's daily swings (about 1.9% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Bargain price, next session: reached 24% of days instead of the usual 26% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Bargain price, next 5 sessions: reached 25% of weeks instead of the usual 27% (held in 10 of 10 years)
Big drop and big gain: among FIS's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time closing high Apr 29, 2021 |
135.39 +272.9% |
| Highest analyst target | 77.00 +112.1% |
| 52-week closing high Jan 8, 2026 |
65.45 +80.3% |
| Mean analyst target | 48.96 +34.9% |
| 200-day average | 44.44 +22.4% |
| 50-day average | 37.90 +4.4% |
| Lowest analyst target | 37.00 +1.9% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 36.96 +1.8% |
| Now | 36.31 |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
35.47 -2.3% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 34.04 -6.3% |
| 52-week closing low Oct 2, 2026 |
32.44 -10.6% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 25 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.