Outperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- FISV +2.89% on the last session vs SPY +0.05%: +2.8 pts of stock-specific move.
- Aftermath, big gain (+2.9% today so far, past its big-gain line of +2.1%): After its 65 big gains in the past 5 years, FISV was higher a day later 24 times out of 65; half the outcomes fell between -1.3% and +0.5%. History, not a forecast.
- 3 analyst actions in the past 10 days (0 positive, 3 negative); latest: Barclays maintained Equal-Weight, lowered target $52.00 → $50.00.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices FISV only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
46.93 +1.9% reached 3 in 10 days reached today |
48.02 +4.2% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
| Now | 47.40 · prior close 46.07 | |
| Bargain buy side |
45.22 -1.8% ↓ less often while far below its high
reached 2 in 10 days · 24% vs usual 26% |
44.20 -4.1% ↓ less often while far below its high
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 25% vs usual 27% |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 44.95 | 2 in 10 days↓ 15% vs 17% | 47.21 | 2 in 10 days |
| Balanced | 45.22 | 2 in 10 days↓ 24% vs 26% | 46.93 | 3 in 10 days |
| Eager | 45.48 | 4 in 10 days↓ 40% vs 41% | 46.67 | 5 in 10 days |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 43.61 | 2 in 10 weeks↓ 16% vs 18% | 48.67 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 44.20 | 3 in 10 weeks↓ 25% vs 27% | 48.02 | 3 in 10 weeks |
| Eager | 44.76 | 4 in 10 weeks↓ 41% vs 43% | 47.42 | 5 in 10 weeks |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From FISV's daily swings (about 1.9% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Bargain price, next session: reached 24% of days instead of the usual 26% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Bargain price, next 5 sessions: reached 25% of weeks instead of the usual 27% (held in 10 of 10 years)
Big drop and big gain: among FISV's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time closing high Mar 3, 2025 |
237.79 +401.7% |
| 52-week closing high Oct 27, 2025 |
126.54 +167.0% |
| Highest analyst target | 106.00 +123.6% |
| Mean analyst target | 59.04 +24.6% |
| 200-day average | 55.77 +17.7% |
| 50-day average | 49.56 +4.6% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 48.02 +1.3% |
| Now | 47.40 |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
46.07 -2.8% |
| 52-week closing low Oct 2, 2026 |
44.36 -6.4% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 44.20 -6.7% |
| Lowest analyst target | 40.00 -15.6% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 40 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.