FITB

Moving with the market

• FITB +0.91% on the last session vs SPY +0.74%: +0.2 pts of stock-specific move.
• Aftermath, crossed above 200-day avg (Oct 2): After its 6 crosses above the 200-day average in the past 5 years, FITB typically lost 0.0% over the next day (median) and was higher 50% of the time; half the outcomes fell between -0.5% and +1.1%. An ordinary day: +0.1%. Among S&P 500 stocks after crosses above the 200-day average, that ranks #301 of 497. (Low confidence: few independent periods.)
• Market backdrop (Fri): Average Hourly Earnings m/m 0.1% vs 0.3% expected (cooler); Non-Farm Employment Change 29K vs 89K expected (weaker); S&P futures +0.41%, 10-year yield -5bp in the 30 minutes after.