FIVN
Outperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- FIVN +5.97% on the last session vs SPY +0.10%: +5.9 pts of stock-specific move.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices FIVN only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
34.40 +4.0% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 days · 31% vs usual 28% reached today |
36.12 +9.2% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 31% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 35.06 · prior close 33.08 | |
| Bargain buy side |
31.81 -3.9% reached 3 in 10 days |
30.30 -8.4% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 31.40 | 2 in 10 days | 34.85 | 2 in 10 days↑ 20% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 31.81 | 3 in 10 days | 34.40 | 3 in 10 days↑ 31% vs 28% |
| Eager | 32.19 | 4 in 10 days | 34.00 | 5 in 10 days↑ 49% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 29.45 | 2 in 10 weeks | 37.16 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 30.30 | 3 in 10 weeks | 36.12 | 3 in 10 weeks↑ 31% vs 30% |
| Eager | 31.12 | 4 in 10 weeks | 35.17 | 5 in 10 weeks↑ 49% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From FIVN's daily swings (about 4.1% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 31% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 31% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 18, 2026 | -5.9% | +10.2% | — | — |
| Sep 8, 2026 | -6.1% | +5.7% | +8.2% | — |
| Aug 6, 2026 | -4.2% | +19.1% | +17.3% | — |
| Jul 22, 2026 | -9.0% | +18.4% | +40.7% | — |
| Jun 17, 2026 | -6.4% | +0.8% | +32.7% | +78.2% |
| Jun 2, 2026 | -4.7% | -13.4% | -6.4% | +36.0% |
| May 6, 2026 | -9.7% | -3.6% | +7.4% | +29.5% |
| Apr 23, 2026 | -6.8% | +11.3% | +47.2% | +49.5% |
Big drop and big gain: among FIVN's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time closing high Aug 4, 2021 |
209.70 +498.2% |
| 52-week closing high Sep 22, 2026 |
38.65 +10.3% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 36.12 +3.0% |
| Now | 35.06 |
| 50-day average | 33.68 -3.9% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
33.08 -5.6% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 30.30 -13.6% |
| 200-day average | 23.24 -33.7% |
| 52-week closing low Apr 10, 2026 |
13.61 -61.2% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 13 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.