FIX
Underperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- FIX −5.66% on the last session vs SPY +0.09%: −5.8 pts of stock-specific move.
- Earnings Oct 22 after the close: EPS $12.76 expected (9 analysts); it moved ±9.6% on average after its last 8 reports.
- Aftermath, big drop (-5.7% today so far, past its big-drop line of -3.5%): After its 71 big drops in the past 5 years, FIX was higher a week later 48 times out of 71; half the outcomes fell between -0.6% and +6.0%. History, not a forecast.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
- Activity: volume on pace for 3.0× its 20-day average.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices FIX only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
1,589.09 +3.1% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 days · 31% vs usual 28% |
1,649.70 +7.0% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 31% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 1,454.43 · prior close 1,541.68 | |
| Bargain buy side |
1,495.69 -3.0% reached 3 in 10 days reached today |
1,440.73 -6.5% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 1,481.05 | 2 in 10 days | 1,604.80 | 2 in 10 days↑ 20% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 1,495.69 | 3 in 10 days | 1,589.09 | 3 in 10 days↑ 31% vs 28% |
| Eager | 1,509.47 | 4 in 10 days | 1,574.58 | 5 in 10 days↑ 49% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 1,409.38 | 2 in 10 weeks | 1,686.39 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 1,440.73 | 3 in 10 weeks | 1,649.70 | 3 in 10 weeks↑ 31% vs 30% |
| Eager | 1,470.58 | 4 in 10 weeks | 1,616.22 | 5 in 10 weeks↑ 49% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From FIX's daily swings (about 3.1% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 31% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 31% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 7, 2026 | -4.2% | -11.5% | — | — |
| Sep 14, 2026 | -6.4% | +3.1% | +2.8% | — |
| Aug 28, 2026 | -6.0% | +6.0% | +9.6% | — |
| Aug 18, 2026 | -7.6% | -10.2% | -9.5% | — |
| Jul 24, 2026 | -5.3% | -0.2% | -7.1% | — |
| Jul 16, 2026 | -3.2% | +9.0% | +5.6% | -8.2% |
| Jul 1, 2026 | -5.9% | -4.5% | -7.3% | -11.3% |
| Jun 23, 2026 | -7.7% | +3.9% | -4.0% | -14.8% |
Big drop and big gain: among FIX's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| Highest analyst target | 2,500.00 +71.9% |
| Mean analyst target | 2,197.00 +51.1% |
| All-time and 52-week closing high Jun 22, 2026 |
2,065.44 +42.0% |
| Lowest analyst target | 1,910.00 +31.3% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 1,649.70 +13.4% |
| 50-day average | 1,649.46 +13.4% |
| 200-day average | 1,587.17 +9.1% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
1,541.68 +6.0% |
| Now | 1,454.43 |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 1,440.73 -0.9% |
| 52-week closing low Oct 22, 2025 |
789.10 -45.7% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 29 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.