FLEX
Underperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- FLEX −5.35% on the last session vs SPY +0.10%: −5.5 pts of stock-specific move.
- Aftermath, big drop (-5.4% today so far, past its big-drop line of -3.4%): After its 62 big drops in the past 5 years, FLEX was higher a month later 39 times out of 62; half the outcomes fell between -3.4% and +11.0%. History, not a forecast.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
- Activity: volume on pace for 2.1× its 20-day average.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices FLEX only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
104.35 +4.0% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 days · 31% vs usual 28% |
109.51 +9.1% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 31% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 94.98 · prior close 100.35 | |
| Bargain buy side |
96.50 -3.8% ↓ less often while far below its high
reached 2 in 10 days · 24% vs usual 26% reached today |
91.95 -8.4% ↓ less often while far below its high
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 25% vs usual 27% |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 95.29 | 2 in 10 days↓ 15% vs 17% | 105.68 | 2 in 10 days↑ 20% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 96.50 | 2 in 10 days↓ 24% vs 26% | 104.35 | 3 in 10 days↑ 31% vs 28% |
| Eager | 97.65 | 4 in 10 days↓ 40% vs 41% | 103.12 | 5 in 10 days↑ 49% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 89.38 | 2 in 10 weeks↓ 16% vs 18% | 112.67 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 91.95 | 3 in 10 weeks↓ 25% vs 27% | 109.51 | 3 in 10 weeks↑ 31% vs 30% |
| Eager | 94.42 | 4 in 10 weeks↓ 41% vs 43% | 106.65 | 5 in 10 weeks↑ 49% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From FLEX's daily swings (about 4.0% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 31% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 31% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 8, 2026 | -3.9% | — | — | — |
| Sep 30, 2026 | -3.4% | +8.5% | — | — |
| Sep 10, 2026 | -4.1% | +0.9% | +10.9% | — |
| Aug 28, 2026 | -4.2% | -0.9% | +3.0% | — |
| Aug 18, 2026 | -7.5% | -9.1% | -9.3% | — |
| Aug 5, 2026 | -3.8% | +2.2% | -11.5% | — |
| Jul 24, 2026 | -7.4% | -4.0% | -10.0% | — |
| Jul 16, 2026 | -5.9% | +5.6% | +4.2% | -17.1% |
- Bargain price, next session: reached 24% of days instead of the usual 26% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Bargain price, next 5 sessions: reached 25% of weeks instead of the usual 27% (held in 10 of 10 years)
Big drop and big gain: among FLEX's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| Highest analyst target | 180.00 +89.5% |
| All-time and 52-week closing high Jun 30, 2026 |
162.07 +70.6% |
| Mean analyst target | 160.50 +69.0% |
| Lowest analyst target | 142.00 +49.5% |
| 50-day average | 113.56 +19.6% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 109.51 +15.3% |
| 200-day average | 101.83 +7.2% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
100.35 +5.7% |
| Now | 94.98 |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 91.95 -3.2% |
| 52-week closing low Nov 20, 2025 |
54.51 -42.6% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 33 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.