FLNC
Moving with the market
- FLNC +0.40% on the last session vs SPY +0.01%: +0.4 pts of stock-specific move.
- Aftermath, big drop (Oct 14): After its 64 big drops in the past 5 years, FLNC was higher a month later 25 times out of 64; half the outcomes fell between -20.2% and +15.8%. History, not a forecast.
- 1 Reddit mentions in the past 24 hours, 91% positive over the week.
- 2 analyst actions in the past 10 days (0 positive, 2 negative); latest: Susquehanna maintained Positive, lowered target $23.00 → $13.00.
- 2 insider or congressional trades in the past 30 days, including 2 insider open-market buys.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices FLNC only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
6.51 +4.8% ↑ more often after a new 52-week low
reached 4 in 10 days · 36% vs usual 28% |
6.90 +11.1% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 31% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 6.24 · prior close 6.21 | |
| Bargain buy side |
5.92 -4.6% ↓ less often while far below its high
reached 2 in 10 days · 24% vs usual 26% reached today |
5.59 -10.0% ↓ less often while far below its high
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 25% vs usual 27% |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 5.83 | 2 in 10 days↓ 15% vs 17% | 6.61 | 3 in 10 days↑ 25% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 5.92 | 2 in 10 days↓ 24% vs 26% | 6.51 | 4 in 10 days↑ 36% vs 28% |
| Eager | 6.01 | 4 in 10 days↓ 40% vs 41% | 6.42 | 5 in 10 days↑ 52% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 5.40 | 2 in 10 weeks↓ 16% vs 18% | 7.14 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 5.59 | 3 in 10 weeks↓ 25% vs 27% | 6.90 | 3 in 10 weeks↑ 31% vs 30% |
| Eager | 5.77 | 4 in 10 weeks↓ 41% vs 43% | 6.68 | 5 in 10 weeks↑ 49% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From FLNC's daily swings (about 4.9% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 31% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 17, 2026 | -15.4% | -2.6% | — | — |
| Sep 9, 2026 | -8.3% | -10.6% | -26.4% | — |
| Aug 18, 2026 | -7.0% | -4.3% | -34.8% | — |
| Aug 5, 2026 | -9.2% | -7.2% | -28.3% | — |
| Jul 24, 2026 | -6.8% | +3.6% | -19.2% | — |
| Jul 1, 2026 | -7.6% | -8.8% | -24.1% | -58.2% |
| Jun 23, 2026 | -15.8% | -6.3% | -32.0% | -65.7% |
| Jun 10, 2026 | -7.8% | +8.3% | -29.9% | -55.2% |
- Stretch price, next session: reached 36% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 9 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 18, 2026 | -4.4% | +7.2% | — | — |
| Mar 28, 2025 | -1.0% | -13.5% | -17.3% | +34.7% |
| Feb 26, 2025 | -0.6% | -11.4% | -18.2% | -22.3% |
| Jan 22, 2025 | -7.5% | -0.6% | -47.9% | -72.5% |
| Feb 22, 2024 | -13.4% | +3.8% | +6.8% | +36.1% |
- Bargain price, next session: reached 24% of days instead of the usual 26% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Bargain price, next 5 sessions: reached 25% of weeks instead of the usual 27% (held in 10 of 10 years)
Big drop and big gain: among FLNC's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time closing high Nov 15, 2021 |
37.61 +503.2% |
| 52-week closing high Feb 3, 2026 |
32.23 +416.9% |
| Highest analyst target | 20.00 +220.8% |
| 200-day average | 16.37 +162.5% |
| 50-day average | 9.65 +54.8% |
| Mean analyst target | 9.20 +47.6% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 6.90 +10.7% |
| Now | 6.24 |
| 52-week closing low Oct 14, 2026 |
6.21 -0.4% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
6.21 -0.4% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 5.59 -10.4% |
| Lowest analyst target | 3.00 -51.9% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 5 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.