FLR
Underperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- FLR −2.18% on the last session vs SPY +0.12%: −2.3 pts of stock-specific move.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices FLR only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
48.81 +2.5% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 days · 31% vs usual 28% |
50.31 +5.6% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 31% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 46.59 · prior close 47.63 | |
| Bargain buy side |
46.48 -2.4% reached 3 in 10 days reached today |
45.09 -5.3% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 46.11 | 2 in 10 days | 49.20 | 2 in 10 days↑ 20% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 46.48 | 3 in 10 days | 48.81 | 3 in 10 days↑ 31% vs 28% |
| Eager | 46.82 | 4 in 10 days | 48.45 | 5 in 10 days↑ 49% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 44.30 | 2 in 10 weeks | 51.21 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 45.09 | 3 in 10 weeks | 50.31 | 3 in 10 weeks↑ 31% vs 30% |
| Eager | 45.85 | 4 in 10 weeks | 49.48 | 5 in 10 weeks↑ 49% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From FLR's daily swings (about 2.5% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 31% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 31% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 24, 2026 | -4.6% | -2.6% | — | — |
| Sep 9, 2026 | -3.2% | -3.4% | -7.0% | — |
| Aug 20, 2026 | -3.5% | +3.7% | +4.9% | — |
| Aug 6, 2026 | -3.3% | +7.3% | +15.2% | — |
| Jul 28, 2026 | -4.6% | +4.5% | +5.5% | — |
| Jul 1, 2026 | -3.9% | -0.3% | -0.4% | -4.9% |
| Jun 5, 2026 | -5.7% | +6.7% | +4.1% | +18.1% |
| May 19, 2026 | -4.1% | +11.2% | +26.2% | +27.1% |
Big drop and big gain: among FLR's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time closing high Jun 23, 2008 |
82.64 +77.4% |
| 52-week closing high Sep 3, 2026 |
57.50 +23.4% |
| 50-day average | 52.50 +12.7% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 50.31 +8.0% |
| 200-day average | 49.20 +5.6% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
47.63 +2.2% |
| Now | 46.59 |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 45.09 -3.2% |
| 52-week closing low Dec 31, 2025 |
39.63 -14.9% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 26 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.