FMC
Underperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- FMC −32.08% on the last session vs SPY +0.01%: −32.1 pts of stock-specific move.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
- Activity: volume on pace for 7.3× its 20-day average.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices FMC only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
8.37 +3.5% ↑ more often after a new 52-week low
reached 4 in 10 days · 36% vs usual 28% |
8.74 +8.0% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
| Now | 5.49 · prior close 8.09 | |
| Bargain buy side |
7.82 -3.4% ↓ less often while far below its high
reached 2 in 10 days · 24% vs usual 26% reached today |
7.49 -7.4% ↓ less often while far below its high
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 25% vs usual 27% |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 7.73 | 2 in 10 days↓ 15% vs 17% | 8.47 | 3 in 10 days↑ 25% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 7.82 | 2 in 10 days↓ 24% vs 26% | 8.37 | 4 in 10 days↑ 36% vs 28% |
| Eager | 7.90 | 4 in 10 days↓ 40% vs 41% | 8.29 | 5 in 10 days↑ 52% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 7.30 | 2 in 10 weeks↓ 16% vs 18% | 8.96 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 7.49 | 3 in 10 weeks↓ 25% vs 27% | 8.74 | 3 in 10 weeks |
| Eager | 7.67 | 4 in 10 weeks↓ 41% vs 43% | 8.54 | 5 in 10 weeks |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From FMC's daily swings (about 3.6% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 36% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 9 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 23, 2026 | -6.3% | -9.1% | — | — |
| Jul 14, 2026 | -1.7% | +6.1% | -4.5% | -21.7% |
| Jun 5, 2026 | -4.5% | +1.8% | -5.4% | +12.2% |
| Oct 29, 2025 | -4.9% | -54.0% | -50.8% | -45.3% |
| Sep 25, 2025 | -3.2% | -3.5% | -6.5% | -59.1% |
| Apr 8, 2025 | -3.5% | +10.1% | +7.7% | +27.3% |
| Feb 5, 2025 | -33.5% | +2.1% | +14.9% | -1.3% |
| Dec 18, 2024 | -5.0% | 0.0% | +12.2% | -14.0% |
- Bargain price, next session: reached 24% of days instead of the usual 26% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Bargain price, next 5 sessions: reached 25% of weeks instead of the usual 27% (held in 10 of 10 years)
Big drop and big gain: among FMC's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time closing high Apr 20, 2022 |
119.52 +2075.1% |
| 52-week closing high Oct 27, 2025 |
29.83 +442.9% |
| 200-day average | 12.79 +132.7% |
| 50-day average | 10.22 +85.9% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 8.74 +59.0% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
8.09 +47.2% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 7.49 +36.3% |
| Now | 5.49 |
| 52-week closing low Oct 15, 2026 |
5.49 0.0% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 47 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.