FNF
Outperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- FNF +1.30% on the last session vs SPY +0.05%: +1.2 pts of stock-specific move.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices FNF only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
39.92 +1.7% reached 3 in 10 days reached today |
40.76 +3.8% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
| Now | 39.77 · prior close 39.26 | |
| Bargain buy side |
38.61 -1.7% reached 3 in 10 days |
37.82 -3.7% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 38.40 | 2 in 10 days | 40.14 | 2 in 10 days |
| Balanced | 38.61 | 3 in 10 days | 39.92 | 3 in 10 days |
| Eager | 38.80 | 4 in 10 days | 39.72 | 5 in 10 days |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 37.36 | 2 in 10 weeks | 41.26 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 37.82 | 3 in 10 weeks | 40.76 | 3 in 10 weeks |
| Eager | 38.25 | 4 in 10 weeks | 40.30 | 5 in 10 weeks |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From FNF's daily swings (about 1.7% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
Big drop and big gain: among FNF's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time closing high Apr 2, 2025 |
60.43 +52.0% |
| 52-week closing high Feb 6, 2026 |
55.70 +40.0% |
| 200-day average | 47.79 +20.2% |
| 50-day average | 43.87 +10.3% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 40.76 +2.5% |
| Now | 39.77 |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
39.26 -1.3% |
| 52-week closing low Sep 30, 2026 |
38.65 -2.8% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 37.82 -4.9% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 21 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.