FNV
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices FNV only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Next session | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
229.85 +2.2% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 days · 31% vs usual 28% |
236.06 +4.9% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 31% vs usual 30% |
| Last close | 224.95 | |
| Bargain buy side |
220.15 -2.1% reached 3 in 10 days |
214.37 -4.7% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Next session | ||||
| Patient | 218.62 | 2 in 10 days | 231.47 | 2 in 10 days↑ 20% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 220.15 | 3 in 10 days | 229.85 | 3 in 10 days↑ 31% vs 28% |
| Eager | 221.59 | 4 in 10 days | 228.36 | 5 in 10 days↑ 49% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 211.04 | 2 in 10 weeks | 239.78 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 214.37 | 3 in 10 weeks | 236.06 | 3 in 10 weeks↑ 31% vs 30% |
| Eager | 217.52 | 4 in 10 weeks | 232.64 | 5 in 10 weeks↑ 49% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From FNV's daily swings (about 2.2% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 30 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 30 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 31% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 31% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 22, 2026 | -4.7% | -0.1% | — | — |
| Oct 7, 2026 | -2.5% | -1.2% | — | — |
| Sep 23, 2026 | -2.4% | -8.7% | -11.1% | — |
| Sep 1, 2026 | -2.9% | +3.9% | -7.5% | — |
| Aug 18, 2026 | -2.3% | +16.7% | +14.6% | — |
| Jul 31, 2026 | -3.8% | +12.1% | +23.6% | +9.0% |
| Jul 8, 2026 | -2.8% | -0.5% | +13.5% | +20.0% |
| Jun 29, 2026 | -3.7% | +1.1% | +3.4% | +18.8% |
Big drop and big gain: among FNV's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time and 52-week closing high Feb 26, 2026 |
279.30 +24.2% |
| 50-day average | 251.51 +11.8% |
| 200-day average | 239.31 +6.4% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 236.06 +4.9% |
| Last close Oct 30, 2026 |
224.95 |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 214.37 -4.7% |
| 52-week closing low Nov 4, 2025 |
183.71 -18.3% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 19 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from the last close. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.