FORM
Underperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- FORM −8.19% on the last session vs SPY +0.00%: −8.2 pts of stock-specific move.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices FORM only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
125.23 +4.6% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 days · 31% vs usual 28% |
132.40 +10.6% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 31% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 109.90 · prior close 119.71 | |
| Bargain buy side |
114.44 -4.4% reached 3 in 10 days reached today |
108.24 -9.6% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 112.77 | 2 in 10 days | 127.07 | 2 in 10 days↑ 20% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 114.44 | 3 in 10 days | 125.23 | 3 in 10 days↑ 31% vs 28% |
| Eager | 116.01 | 4 in 10 days | 123.53 | 5 in 10 days↑ 49% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 104.75 | 2 in 10 weeks | 136.80 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 108.24 | 3 in 10 weeks | 132.40 | 3 in 10 weeks↑ 31% vs 30% |
| Eager | 111.59 | 4 in 10 weeks | 128.42 | 5 in 10 weeks↑ 49% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From FORM's daily swings (about 4.7% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 31% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 31% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 12, 2026 | -6.7% | — | — | — |
| Sep 14, 2026 | -10.4% | +15.9% | +24.4% | — |
| Aug 28, 2026 | -7.7% | +2.2% | +34.0% | — |
| Aug 18, 2026 | -10.0% | -13.4% | -10.3% | — |
| Aug 5, 2026 | -4.9% | +12.5% | -15.4% | — |
| Jul 24, 2026 | -7.7% | +2.1% | +3.7% | — |
| Jul 13, 2026 | -6.1% | -4.5% | +9.8% | +26.6% |
| Jul 1, 2026 | -8.0% | -18.8% | -27.8% | +1.5% |
Big drop and big gain: among FORM's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time and 52-week closing high Jun 30, 2026 |
159.93 +45.5% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 132.40 +20.5% |
| 50-day average | 120.56 +9.7% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
119.71 +8.9% |
| 200-day average | 111.95 +1.9% |
| Now | 109.90 |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 108.24 -1.5% |
| 52-week closing low Oct 14, 2025 |
40.25 -63.4% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 23 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.