FOXA
Moving with its group (XLC +1.3%)
- FOXA +1.94% on the last session vs SPY +0.12%: +1.8 pts of stock-specific move.
- The communications ETF (XLC) +1.3% (+1.2 pts vs SPY): the stock moved with its group.
- Aftermath, crossed above 200-day avg ($63.42 today so far, above its 200-day average of $62.45): After its 9 crosses above the 200-day average in the past 5 years, FOXA was higher a month later 6 times out of 9; half the outcomes fell between -4.4% and +3.2%. History, not a forecast.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices FOXA only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
63.18 +1.6% reached 3 in 10 days reached today |
64.40 +3.5% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
| Now | 63.42 · prior close 62.21 | |
| Bargain buy side |
61.25 -1.5% reached 3 in 10 days |
60.09 -3.4% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 60.95 | 2 in 10 days | 63.50 | 2 in 10 days |
| Balanced | 61.25 | 3 in 10 days | 63.18 | 3 in 10 days |
| Eager | 61.54 | 4 in 10 days | 62.89 | 5 in 10 days |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 59.42 | 2 in 10 weeks | 65.13 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 60.09 | 3 in 10 weeks | 64.40 | 3 in 10 weeks |
| Eager | 60.73 | 4 in 10 weeks | 63.73 | 5 in 10 weeks |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From FOXA's daily swings (about 1.6% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
Big drop and big gain: among FOXA's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| Highest analyst target | 112.00 +76.6% |
| Mean analyst target | 76.42 +20.5% |
| All-time and 52-week closing high Jan 6, 2026 |
75.41 +18.9% |
| 50-day average | 65.06 +2.6% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 64.40 +1.6% |
| Now | 63.42 |
| 200-day average | 62.40 -1.6% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
62.21 -1.9% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 60.09 -5.2% |
| Lowest analyst target | 52.60 -17.1% |
| 52-week closing low Jun 23, 2026 |
48.58 -23.4% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 8 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.