FPS
Underperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- FPS −4.71% on the last session vs SPY −0.08%: −4.6 pts of stock-specific move.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices FPS only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
34.42 +5.3% reached 3 in 10 days |
36.66 +12.1% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
| Now | 31.16 · prior close 32.70 | |
| Bargain buy side |
31.07 -5.0% reached 3 in 10 days reached today |
29.16 -10.8% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 30.56 | 2 in 10 days | 34.99 | 2 in 10 days |
| Balanced | 31.07 | 3 in 10 days | 34.42 | 3 in 10 days |
| Eager | 31.55 | 4 in 10 days | 33.89 | 5 in 10 days |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 28.10 | 2 in 10 weeks | 38.05 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 29.16 | 3 in 10 weeks | 36.66 | 3 in 10 weeks |
| Eager | 30.19 | 4 in 10 weeks | 35.42 | 5 in 10 weeks |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From FPS's daily swings (about 5.3% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
Big drop and big gain: among FPS's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time and 52-week closing high Jun 4, 2026 |
64.59 +107.3% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 36.66 +17.7% |
| 50-day average | 35.41 +13.6% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
32.70 +4.9% |
| Now | 31.16 |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 29.16 -6.4% |
| 52-week closing low Mar 30, 2026 |
27.97 -10.2% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 1 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.