FRNM
Outperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- FRNM +3.53% on the last session vs SPY +0.10%: +3.4 pts of stock-specific move.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices FRNM only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
12.82 +5.2% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 days · 31% vs usual 28% |
13.66 +12.0% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 31% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 12.62 · prior close 12.19 | |
| Bargain buy side |
11.59 -4.9% reached 3 in 10 days |
10.88 -10.7% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 11.40 | 2 in 10 days | 13.04 | 2 in 10 days↑ 20% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 11.59 | 3 in 10 days | 12.82 | 3 in 10 days↑ 31% vs 28% |
| Eager | 11.77 | 4 in 10 days | 12.63 | 5 in 10 days↑ 49% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 10.49 | 2 in 10 weeks | 14.17 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 10.88 | 3 in 10 weeks | 13.66 | 3 in 10 weeks↑ 31% vs 30% |
| Eager | 11.26 | 4 in 10 weeks | 13.19 | 5 in 10 weeks↑ 49% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From FRNM's daily swings (about 5.2% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 31% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 31% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 6, 2026 | -2.8% | -22.7% | — | — |
| Sep 23, 2026 | -4.6% | +0.3% | — | — |
| Sep 15, 2026 | -2.1% | +12.4% | -16.7% | — |
| Sep 4, 2026 | -3.5% | -8.3% | +0.3% | — |
| Aug 20, 2026 | -0.9% | +3.2% | +22.9% | — |
| Aug 12, 2026 | -3.7% | +18.0% | +24.4% | — |
| Jul 28, 2026 | -5.4% | +1.3% | +30.8% | — |
| Jul 17, 2026 | -0.8% | -5.5% | +9.2% | — |
Big drop and big gain: among FRNM's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time and 52-week closing high Sep 18, 2026 |
17.11 +35.6% |
| 50-day average | 14.57 +15.4% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 13.66 +8.2% |
| Now | 12.62 |
| 200-day average | 12.53 -0.7% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
12.19 -3.4% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 10.88 -13.8% |
| 52-week closing low Jul 30, 2026 |
9.99 -20.8% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 2 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.