FROG
Outperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- FROG +1.57% on the last session vs SPY +0.13%: +1.4 pts of stock-specific move.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices FROG only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
95.28 +3.6% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 days · 31% vs usual 28% |
99.56 +8.3% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 31% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 93.40 · prior close 91.96 | |
| Bargain buy side |
88.75 -3.5% reached 3 in 10 days reached today |
84.94 -7.6% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 87.73 | 2 in 10 days | 96.39 | 2 in 10 days↑ 20% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 88.75 | 3 in 10 days | 95.28 | 3 in 10 days↑ 31% vs 28% |
| Eager | 89.71 | 4 in 10 days | 94.27 | 5 in 10 days↑ 49% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 82.78 | 2 in 10 weeks | 102.16 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 84.94 | 3 in 10 weeks | 99.56 | 3 in 10 weeks↑ 31% vs 30% |
| Eager | 87.01 | 4 in 10 weeks | 97.20 | 5 in 10 weeks↑ 49% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From FROG's daily swings (about 3.7% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 31% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 31% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 25, 2026 | -5.3% | +7.1% | — | — |
| Aug 28, 2026 | -5.1% | -11.3% | -8.5% | — |
| Jul 28, 2026 | -5.9% | +12.8% | +21.4% | — |
| Jul 16, 2026 | -5.2% | -6.1% | +11.1% | +6.3% |
| Jul 8, 2026 | -3.6% | -1.6% | -10.4% | +6.2% |
| Jun 22, 2026 | -3.4% | +12.8% | -0.3% | +15.2% |
| Jun 3, 2026 | -4.8% | -4.2% | +17.0% | +9.4% |
| May 13, 2026 | -5.0% | +14.4% | +21.1% | +48.3% |
Big drop and big gain: among FROG's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time and 52-week closing high Aug 27, 2026 |
104.03 +11.4% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 99.56 +6.6% |
| Now | 93.40 |
| 50-day average | 92.84 -0.6% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
91.96 -1.5% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 84.94 -9.1% |
| 200-day average | 69.81 -25.3% |
| 52-week closing low Feb 23, 2026 |
34.75 -62.8% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 6 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.