FRVO
Underperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- FRVO −5.67% on the last session vs SPY +0.09%: −5.8 pts of stock-specific move.
- 1 Reddit mentions in the past 24 hours, 40% positive over the week · today's pace is 1.3× its recent daily average.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices FRVO only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
11.63 +6.3% reached 3 in 10 days |
12.54 +14.6% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
| Now | 10.32 · prior close 10.94 | |
| Bargain buy side |
10.29 -5.9% reached 3 in 10 days reached today |
9.55 -12.7% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 10.09 | 2 in 10 days | 11.86 | 2 in 10 days |
| Balanced | 10.29 | 3 in 10 days | 11.63 | 3 in 10 days |
| Eager | 10.49 | 4 in 10 days | 11.41 | 5 in 10 days |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 9.13 | 2 in 10 weeks | 13.10 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 9.55 | 3 in 10 weeks | 12.54 | 3 in 10 weeks |
| Eager | 9.95 | 4 in 10 weeks | 12.03 | 5 in 10 weeks |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From FRVO's daily swings (about 6.3% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
Big drop and big gain: among FRVO's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| Highest analyst target | 51.00 +394.2% |
| All-time and 52-week closing high May 21, 2026 |
42.50 +311.8% |
| Mean analyst target | 37.71 +265.4% |
| Lowest analyst target | 25.00 +142.2% |
| 50-day average | 16.51 +60.0% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 12.54 +21.5% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
10.94 +6.0% |
| Now | 10.32 |
| 52-week closing low Oct 15, 2026 |
10.32 0.0% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 9.55 -7.5% |
Closing prices. Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.