Moving with the market
- FSLR −0.07% on the last session vs SPY +0.09%: −0.2 pts of stock-specific move.
- Aftermath, big drop (Oct 14): After its 69 big drops in the past 5 years, FSLR was higher a day later 38 times out of 69; half the outcomes fell between -1.4% and +1.7%. History, not a forecast.
- 3 analyst actions in the past 10 days (2 positive, 1 negative); latest: Morgan Stanley maintained Overweight, raised target $323 → $326.
- 1 insider or congressional trade in the past 30 days.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices FSLR only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
184.57 +3.1% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 days · 31% vs usual 28% |
191.59 +7.0% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 31% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 178.95 · prior close 179.08 | |
| Bargain buy side |
173.75 -3.0% ↓ less often while far below its high
reached 2 in 10 days · 24% vs usual 26% |
167.39 -6.5% ↓ less often while far below its high
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 25% vs usual 27% |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 172.06 | 2 in 10 days↓ 15% vs 17% | 186.39 | 2 in 10 days↑ 20% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 173.75 | 2 in 10 days↓ 24% vs 26% | 184.57 | 3 in 10 days↑ 31% vs 28% |
| Eager | 175.35 | 4 in 10 days↓ 40% vs 41% | 182.89 | 5 in 10 days↑ 49% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 163.76 | 2 in 10 weeks↓ 16% vs 18% | 195.84 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 167.39 | 3 in 10 weeks↓ 25% vs 27% | 191.59 | 3 in 10 weeks↑ 31% vs 30% |
| Eager | 170.84 | 4 in 10 weeks↓ 41% vs 43% | 187.71 | 5 in 10 weeks↑ 49% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From FSLR's daily swings (about 3.1% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 31% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 31% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 23, 2026 | -4.4% | -8.8% | — | — |
| Sep 9, 2026 | -4.8% | -5.9% | -11.9% | — |
| Aug 20, 2026 | -3.7% | -1.8% | -6.6% | — |
| Aug 10, 2026 | -4.3% | -9.0% | -15.1% | — |
| Jul 16, 2026 | -5.3% | -2.8% | +6.4% | -15.5% |
| Jun 23, 2026 | -5.3% | -5.3% | -17.4% | -19.4% |
| Jun 5, 2026 | -11.4% | -4.2% | -19.6% | -26.7% |
| May 19, 2026 | -5.1% | +23.4% | +16.2% | +0.3% |
- Bargain price, next session: reached 24% of days instead of the usual 26% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Bargain price, next 5 sessions: reached 25% of weeks instead of the usual 27% (held in 10 of 10 years)
Big drop and big gain: among FSLR's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| Highest analyst target | 402.00 +124.6% |
| All-time and 52-week closing high Jun 3, 2026 |
318.25 +77.8% |
| Mean analyst target | 274.77 +53.5% |
| 200-day average | 220.29 +23.1% |
| 50-day average | 201.04 +12.3% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 191.59 +7.1% |
| Lowest analyst target | 191.00 +6.7% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
179.08 +0.1% |
| Now | 178.95 |
| 52-week closing low Oct 1, 2026 |
172.11 -3.8% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 167.39 -6.5% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 20 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.