FSLY
Underperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- FSLY −6.36% on the last session vs SPY +0.01%: −6.4 pts of stock-specific move.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices FSLY only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
26.64 +6.6% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 days · 31% vs usual 28% |
28.81 +15.3% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 31% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 23.41 · prior close 25.00 | |
| Bargain buy side |
23.46 -6.2% reached 3 in 10 days reached today |
21.69 -13.2% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 22.98 | 2 in 10 days | 27.19 | 2 in 10 days↑ 20% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 23.46 | 3 in 10 days | 26.64 | 3 in 10 days↑ 31% vs 28% |
| Eager | 23.92 | 4 in 10 days | 26.13 | 5 in 10 days↑ 49% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 20.71 | 2 in 10 weeks | 30.17 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 21.69 | 3 in 10 weeks | 28.81 | 3 in 10 weeks↑ 31% vs 30% |
| Eager | 22.64 | 4 in 10 weeks | 27.60 | 5 in 10 weeks↑ 49% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From FSLY's daily swings (about 6.6% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 31% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 31% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 12, 2026 | -9.8% | — | — | — |
| Sep 22, 2026 | -4.9% | -2.3% | — | — |
| Aug 28, 2026 | -6.5% | -10.6% | +10.6% | — |
| Aug 18, 2026 | -8.4% | -13.5% | -7.6% | — |
| Aug 6, 2026 | -12.9% | +32.4% | -9.2% | — |
| Jul 23, 2026 | -5.0% | +10.9% | +28.4% | — |
| Jun 16, 2026 | -6.3% | -5.8% | +19.2% | +35.4% |
| Jun 5, 2026 | -9.2% | +2.7% | +9.2% | +13.9% |
Big drop and big gain: among FSLY's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time closing high Oct 13, 2020 |
128.83 +450.3% |
| 52-week closing high Apr 2, 2026 |
33.50 +43.1% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 28.81 +23.1% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
25.00 +6.8% |
| 50-day average | 24.96 +6.6% |
| Now | 23.41 |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 21.69 -7.3% |
| 200-day average | 20.67 -11.7% |
| 52-week closing low Oct 17, 2025 |
7.86 -66.4% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 7 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.