FSM
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices FSM only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Next session | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
9.19 +3.4% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 days · 31% vs usual 28% |
9.58 +7.9% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 31% vs usual 30% |
| Last close | 8.88 | |
| Bargain buy side |
8.58 -3.3% reached 3 in 10 days |
8.23 -7.3% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Next session | ||||
| Patient | 8.49 | 2 in 10 days | 9.29 | 2 in 10 days↑ 20% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 8.58 | 3 in 10 days | 9.19 | 3 in 10 days↑ 31% vs 28% |
| Eager | 8.67 | 4 in 10 days | 9.09 | 5 in 10 days↑ 49% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 8.03 | 2 in 10 weeks | 9.82 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 8.23 | 3 in 10 weeks | 9.58 | 3 in 10 weeks↑ 31% vs 30% |
| Eager | 8.42 | 4 in 10 weeks | 9.36 | 5 in 10 weeks↑ 49% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From FSM's daily swings (about 3.5% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 30 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 30 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 31% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 31% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 22, 2026 | -7.9% | -1.6% | — | — |
| Oct 7, 2026 | -9.5% | +0.5% | — | — |
| Sep 23, 2026 | -4.5% | -3.6% | -18.4% | — |
| Aug 28, 2026 | -4.3% | +0.4% | -7.4% | — |
| Jul 31, 2026 | -3.9% | +23.3% | +43.3% | +11.2% |
| Jun 23, 2026 | -5.0% | -1.7% | -2.1% | +42.0% |
| Jun 3, 2026 | -4.1% | -14.1% | -7.9% | +30.1% |
| May 15, 2026 | -7.6% | -2.1% | +1.5% | +12.8% |
Big drop and big gain: among FSM's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time and 52-week closing high Feb 27, 2026 |
13.66 +53.8% |
| 50-day average | 11.22 +26.3% |
| 200-day average | 10.31 +16.2% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 9.58 +7.9% |
| Last close Oct 30, 2026 |
8.88 |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 8.23 -7.3% |
| 52-week closing low Nov 4, 2025 |
7.84 -11.7% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 20 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from the last close. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.