FSUN
Outperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- FSUN +0.32% on the last session vs SPY −0.91%: +1.2 pts of stock-specific move.
- Market backdrop (Thu): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices FSUN only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
38.56 +1.3% reached 3 in 10 days reached today |
39.20 +3.0% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
| Now | 38.17 · prior close 38.05 | |
| Bargain buy side |
37.55 -1.3% reached 3 in 10 days |
36.93 -2.9% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 37.38 | 2 in 10 days | 38.73 | 2 in 10 days |
| Balanced | 37.55 | 3 in 10 days | 38.56 | 3 in 10 days |
| Eager | 37.70 | 4 in 10 days | 38.40 | 5 in 10 days |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 36.58 | 2 in 10 weeks | 39.58 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 36.93 | 3 in 10 weeks | 39.20 | 3 in 10 weeks |
| Eager | 37.27 | 4 in 10 weeks | 38.85 | 5 in 10 weeks |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From FSUN's daily swings (about 1.4% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 15 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 15 close
Big drop and big gain: among FSUN's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time closing high Feb 12, 2025 |
43.97 +15.2% |
| 52-week closing high Aug 14, 2026 |
41.11 +7.7% |
| 50-day average | 39.64 +3.9% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 39.20 +2.7% |
| Now | 38.17 |
| Previous close Oct 15, 2026 |
38.05 -0.3% |
| 200-day average | 37.83 -0.9% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 36.93 -3.2% |
| 52-week closing low Nov 17, 2025 |
30.16 -21.0% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 4 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.