FSV
Outperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- FSV +3.42% on the last session vs SPY +0.09%: +3.3 pts of stock-specific move.
- Earnings Oct 22 before the open (date not confirmed): EPS $1.76 expected (4 analysts).
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices FSV only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
132.46 +1.4% reached 3 in 10 days reached today |
134.74 +3.1% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
| Now | 135.12 · prior close 130.65 | |
| Bargain buy side |
128.86 -1.4% reached 3 in 10 days |
126.68 -3.0% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 128.28 | 2 in 10 days | 133.06 | 2 in 10 days |
| Balanced | 128.86 | 3 in 10 days | 132.46 | 3 in 10 days |
| Eager | 129.40 | 4 in 10 days | 131.91 | 5 in 10 days |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 125.42 | 2 in 10 weeks | 136.10 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 126.68 | 3 in 10 weeks | 134.74 | 3 in 10 weeks |
| Eager | 127.87 | 4 in 10 weeks | 133.49 | 5 in 10 weeks |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From FSV's daily swings (about 1.4% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
Big drop and big gain: among FSV's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time closing high Sep 11, 2025 |
206.36 +52.7% |
| 52-week closing high Oct 21, 2025 |
183.44 +35.8% |
| 200-day average | 142.32 +5.3% |
| 50-day average | 135.85 +0.5% |
| Now | 135.12 |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 134.74 -0.3% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
130.65 -3.3% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 126.68 -6.2% |
| 52-week closing low May 5, 2026 |
125.09 -7.4% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 11 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.