FTNT
Moving with its cybersecurity peers
- FTNT −1.89% on the last session vs SPY +0.12%: −2.0 pts of stock-specific move.
- Cybersecurity basket -1.9% (-2.0 pts vs SPY; NET -4.1%, CRWD -2.5%, OKTA -1.7%, PANW -1.7%): the stock moved with its peers.
- Aftermath, big drop (Oct 14): After its 56 big drops in the past 5 years, FTNT was higher a month later 36 times out of 56; half the outcomes fell between -2.0% and +8.0%. History, not a forecast.
- 1 analyst action in the past 10 days (0 positive, 0 negative); latest: Amerx started coverage at Overweight, target $240.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices FTNT only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
188.54 +2.4% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 days · 31% vs usual 28% |
194.25 +5.5% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 31% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 180.57 · prior close 184.05 | |
| Bargain buy side |
179.66 -2.4% reached 3 in 10 days reached today |
174.38 -5.3% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 178.26 | 2 in 10 days | 190.03 | 2 in 10 days↑ 20% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 179.66 | 3 in 10 days | 188.54 | 3 in 10 days↑ 31% vs 28% |
| Eager | 180.98 | 4 in 10 days | 187.17 | 5 in 10 days↑ 49% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 171.36 | 2 in 10 weeks | 197.68 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 174.38 | 3 in 10 weeks | 194.25 | 3 in 10 weeks↑ 31% vs 30% |
| Eager | 177.26 | 4 in 10 weeks | 191.10 | 5 in 10 weeks↑ 49% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From FTNT's daily swings (about 2.5% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 31% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 31% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 25, 2026 | -2.9% | +4.3% | — | — |
| Aug 28, 2026 | -3.9% | -5.8% | +6.0% | — |
| Aug 14, 2026 | -3.3% | -4.1% | +7.7% | — |
| Aug 5, 2026 | -2.5% | -2.0% | -4.7% | — |
| Jul 7, 2026 | -2.3% | +5.1% | +3.4% | +16.0% |
| Jun 5, 2026 | -3.3% | +1.1% | +8.3% | +8.0% |
| May 27, 2026 | -4.5% | +14.5% | +18.3% | +23.1% |
| Apr 23, 2026 | -5.0% | +1.9% | +61.8% | +84.1% |
Big drop and big gain: among FTNT's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| Highest analyst target | 220.00 +21.8% |
| All-time and 52-week closing high Oct 9, 2026 |
194.75 +7.9% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 194.25 +7.6% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
184.05 +1.9% |
| Now | 180.57 |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 174.38 -3.4% |
| 50-day average | 169.19 -6.3% |
| Mean analyst target | 164.32 -9.0% |
| 200-day average | 123.42 -31.6% |
| Lowest analyst target | 104.00 -42.4% |
| 52-week closing low Feb 24, 2026 |
75.23 -58.3% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 17 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.