FTRE
Outperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- FTRE +3.51% on the last session vs SPY +0.04%: +3.5 pts of stock-specific move.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices FTRE only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
21.94 +2.8% ↓ less often after a new 52-week high
reached 3 in 10 days · 25% vs usual 28% reached today |
22.71 +6.4% ↓ less often after a new 52-week high
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 27% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 22.09 · prior close 21.34 | |
| Bargain buy side |
20.75 -2.7% reached 3 in 10 days |
20.05 -6.0% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 20.57 | 2 in 10 days | 22.14 | 2 in 10 days↓ 15% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 20.75 | 3 in 10 days | 21.94 | 3 in 10 days↓ 25% vs 28% |
| Eager | 20.93 | 4 in 10 days | 21.76 | 4 in 10 days↓ 43% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 19.65 | 2 in 10 weeks | 23.17 | 2 in 10 weeks↓ 16% vs 19% |
| Balanced | 20.05 | 3 in 10 weeks | 22.71 | 3 in 10 weeks↓ 27% vs 30% |
| Eager | 20.43 | 4 in 10 weeks | 22.29 | 5 in 10 weeks↓ 45% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From FTRE's daily swings (about 2.9% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 25% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 10 of 10 years)
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 27% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 9 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 5, 2026 | +5.6% | -0.5% | — | — |
| Jul 22, 2026 | +3.2% | +10.3% | -1.6% | — |
Big drop and big gain: among FTRE's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time closing high Apr 9, 2024 |
40.28 +82.3% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 22.71 +2.8% |
| Now | 22.09 |
| 52-week closing high Oct 15, 2026 |
22.09 0.0% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
21.34 -3.4% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 20.05 -9.2% |
| 50-day average | 19.11 -13.5% |
| 200-day average | 15.36 -30.5% |
| 52-week closing low Mar 30, 2026 |
8.87 -59.8% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 3 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.