FWONA
Outperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- FWONA +1.17% on the last session vs SPY +0.13%: +1.0 pts of stock-specific move.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices FWONA only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
84.35 +1.6% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 days · 31% vs usual 28% |
85.97 +3.5% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 31% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 84.03 · prior close 83.06 | |
| Bargain buy side |
81.79 -1.5% reached 3 in 10 days |
80.25 -3.4% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 81.38 | 2 in 10 days | 84.77 | 2 in 10 days↑ 20% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 81.79 | 3 in 10 days | 84.35 | 3 in 10 days↑ 31% vs 28% |
| Eager | 82.17 | 4 in 10 days | 83.96 | 5 in 10 days↑ 49% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 79.35 | 2 in 10 weeks | 86.94 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 80.25 | 3 in 10 weeks | 85.97 | 3 in 10 weeks↑ 31% vs 30% |
| Eager | 81.09 | 4 in 10 weeks | 85.08 | 5 in 10 weeks↑ 49% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From FWONA's daily swings (about 1.6% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 31% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 31% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 10, 2026 | -1.9% | -1.3% | -0.4% | — |
| Aug 25, 2026 | -2.0% | -6.8% | -9.9% | — |
| Aug 17, 2026 | -1.9% | +5.1% | -6.7% | — |
| Jul 31, 2026 | -2.4% | +4.6% | +2.5% | — |
| Jul 20, 2026 | -2.9% | -1.0% | +2.2% | — |
| Jul 8, 2026 | -2.5% | +2.8% | +2.5% | -1.5% |
| Jun 22, 2026 | -2.0% | +4.6% | +8.4% | +7.0% |
| Jun 2, 2026 | -1.8% | -1.8% | +10.0% | +8.5% |
Big drop and big gain: among FWONA's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time closing high Oct 6, 2025 |
99.33 +18.2% |
| 52-week closing high Aug 24, 2026 |
98.18 +16.8% |
| 50-day average | 89.52 +6.5% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 85.97 +2.3% |
| 200-day average | 84.50 +0.6% |
| Now | 84.03 |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
83.06 -1.2% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 80.25 -4.5% |
| 52-week closing low Mar 20, 2026 |
74.51 -11.3% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 14 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.