FXI
Outperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- FXI +0.87% on the last session vs SPY +0.01%: +0.9 pts of stock-specific move.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices FXI only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
34.23 +1.1% reached 3 in 10 days |
34.70 +2.5% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
| Now | 34.15 · prior close 33.86 | |
| Bargain buy side |
33.49 -1.1% reached 3 in 10 days |
33.04 -2.4% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 33.37 | 2 in 10 days | 34.35 | 2 in 10 days |
| Balanced | 33.49 | 3 in 10 days | 34.23 | 3 in 10 days |
| Eager | 33.60 | 4 in 10 days | 34.12 | 5 in 10 days |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 32.78 | 2 in 10 weeks | 34.97 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 33.04 | 3 in 10 weeks | 34.70 | 3 in 10 weeks |
| Eager | 33.29 | 4 in 10 weeks | 34.44 | 5 in 10 weeks |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From FXI's daily swings (about 1.1% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
Big drop and big gain: among FXI's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time closing high Feb 17, 2021 |
48.26 +41.3% |
| 52-week closing high Jan 29, 2026 |
40.48 +18.5% |
| 200-day average | 35.88 +5.0% |
| 50-day average | 34.76 +1.8% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 34.70 +1.6% |
| Now | 34.15 |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
33.86 -0.9% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 33.04 -3.3% |
| 52-week closing low Jun 26, 2026 |
31.59 -7.5% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 22 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.